*The Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab), the logistics arm of Brazil’s agrarian development ministry, has released its third estimate for the 2026 coffee harvest, projecting total production to reach 67.6m sacks of coffee (one sack = 60kg). This would mark an increase of 19.6% compared to the 2025 harvest. The latest projection is also up from Conab’s
previous forecast of 66.7m sacks released in May. Regarding coffee varieties, arabica coffee is currently expected to register 48.2m sacks in 2026, which would be up 34.8% compared to last year, while robusta production is projected to drop to 19.4m sacks, which would be down 6.6% in annual terms. Total coffee production in the south-eastern state of Minas Gerais, Brazil’s top coffee producer state, is projected to rise to 35.6m sacks, which would be up 38.2% compared to 2025. A Conab press release highlights that favourable climate conditions are expected to benefit arabica production in Minas Gerais, which is expected to total 34.96m sacks.
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