Although imports were up by only 6%, year-on-year in January at US$691m, the economy looks vulnerable to any jump in oil prices. In January 2011 the oil bill was US$108m, down 25% on the same month of 2010. The increase in oil prices to over US$110 a barrel in February and March will push up the country's oil bill. Inflation, so far is quiescent. In February the month-on-month rise in the consumer price index was 0.2%, bringing the rate for the past 12 months to 2.4%. The problem for consumer prices is that the government has been forced to push up fuel prices (especially of petrol and diesel which now sell for over US$4 a gallon) and to cut the subsidies it pays for cooking gas. The government claims that it wants to focus the subsidy on the poor, but the change has triggered protests from a host of special interest groups. The big change is that the government will pay subsidies directly, to consumers, rather than, as in the past, to gas distribution companies. In 2010 these companies received US$130m in gas subsidies, the government says. The government's plan to is to make cash payments to the poor this month (March) which then can be used by the poor to offset higher gas prices when the market is liberalised in April. Small family-owned cooking businesses, such as tortillerias will also be eligible for the subsidy. The free market price of gas canisters however is likely to be US$13 to US$14, rather than the current US$5.10.
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