The national statistics institute, Indec, tries to downplay this recent development by setting it against the broader 'firm recovery', but when analysing the figures cannot but confirm the trend.
'After four consecutive quarters of positive variations with respect to the previous quarter,' it notes, 'the second quarter of 2003 has remained at a level similar to that of the first quarter [...] with a small decline of 0.5%.'
Indec says the main reason for this was the contraction of domestic consumption in Brazil, which has had a knock-on effect on Argentina's bilateral trade with that country. Indeed, in June Brazil's trade balance with Argentina showed the first surplus (for Brazil) in 41 months, with Brazilian exports outstripping purchases from Argentina by US$34m.
The huge influx of low-priced Brazilian goods (chiefly textiles, paper, footwear and foodstuffs) made such an impact on the Argentine market that an emergency bilateral meeting was convened last Wednesday in Buenos Aires.
Another factor conspiring against industrial growth was the high cost of credit, which is affecting consumers as well as industries.
In really bad shape, with production lower than in the first half of 2002, are three sectors: dairy products, synthetic and artificial fibres, and meats.
While interior minister Aníbal Fernández has admitted that private economists are right about the slowdown, economy minister Roberto Lavagna appears determined to talk it away. He says that a number of indicators [no details provided] 'are pointing towards acceleration', and that GDP growth this year will reach at least 5%.
End of preview - This article contains approximately 308 words.
Subscribers: Log in now to read the full article
Not a Subscriber?
Choose from one of the following options
