The government had been hoping that growth in 2003 would be close to 2.6%. The disappointing figures for the first nine months suggest that growth is likely to be closer to 2%. The final quarter will have been disrupted by the unrest which led to the overthrow and exile of President Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada.
The IMF does not seem too bothered with the poor growth. The finance minister, Javier Cuevas, said that the Fund was happy with the government's projection that the fiscal deficit in 2004 would be 6.8%. The Fund's approval will trigger loans of US$136.5m from the World Bank and US$122m from the IDB. Cuevas said that the Fund had agreed that the economy will grow by 3.6% in 2004 and that inflation will be 3%.
The Cámara de Hidrocarburos reckons that the country has lost the chance of exporting gas to the US. It argues that the blow will be much greater than the simple loss of an export market. It claims that the country has lost any chance of building up its industrial base, such as using gas as a feedstock for petrochemicals. The Cámara's statement follows news that Shell has signed up with Sempra Energy to build a US$600m gas-reception plant in Baja California. This plant will take natural gas from Indonesia and Australia. Sempra had been interested in taking gas from Bolivia.
The interim government, headed by President Carlos Mesa, still says that it will hold a referendum on whether gas should be liquefied and shipped to the US, probably via Chile. The Cámara argues that without the export end of the project, the Tarija fields cannot be used to develop a petrochemicals industry.
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