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Economy & Business - January 2004

ECUADOR: Economically stable

The government is hoping that the economy will boom in 2004. It argues that high oil prices and increased output, thanks to the completion and commissioning of the Oleoducto para Crudos Pesados (OCP), will boost export revenues and government income. The problem is that the government seems determined to use these extra revenues to reduce the foreign debt. 

The government's gamble is that this policy will encourage foreign investors (or Ecuadoreans with money outside the country) to invest. Most investors are likely to wait and see what will happen on the oil investment side: the government is trying to get oil companies interested in developing new fields. 

In 2003, the economy may have grown by about 3%, thanks largely to the success of the oil sector. There was a clear increase in oil output in the final third of the year, following the commissioning of the OCP. In the first 11 months of the year, according to the most recent data from the central bank, oil revenues were US$2.068bn, up US$391m on the same period of 2002.

Oil exports have been leading the pick-up in exports. Overall, total exports in the first 11 months of 2003 were up by 16.7%. Banana exports, the second most important export, increased from US$883m in the first 11 months of 2002 to US$1.02bn for the same period of 2003. 

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