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Economy & Business - March 2011 (ISSN 1741-7430)

A haven but fundamental problems loom

This is our third effort at forecasting what will happen in the region's economies in 2011. We are probably more optimistic than most governments in the region about Latin America's immediate economic prospects. Longer term, however, we doubt that the region's streak of economic luck can continue without either a period of consolidation or some sort of setback. Our Schumpeterian view is that excesses must be developing which need purging if growth is to accelerate again. Argentina is an obvious example of an economy where there is an increasing probability of an abrupt change in the mix of economic policies. Mexico is another and in Peru economic uncertainties are mounting as the election becomes less predictable. We're writing this in the penultimate week of March, just after a coalition led by the US, Britain and France attacked military installations in Libya.

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