Its main reason is the conviction that the recovery of the US economy, which it says is decidedly taking place, will not be immediately felt in Mexico, and that the time-lag is likely to be most marked in manufacturing — which affects job creation and hence the vitality of the domestic market.
The central bank has lowered its own forecast from 2.2% to 2%, and the finance ministry has said it will be adjusting its prediction of 3% to about 2.1%. The consensus of the economic forecasters regularly surveyed by the central bank is that the economy will grow this year by 1.73%.
INDUSTRIAL PERFORMANCE | Production still heading downwards. Overall industrial production in the first seven months of the year was 0.9% lower than in the same period of 2002, and the trend is downwards: July output was 1.9% lower than a year earlier.
The July result was dragged down by manufacturing, which in July was down 3.5% year-on-year (with the broader `transformation industry' bracket showing far greater contraction than the maquiladoras). Extractive industries were up by 5.1% (boosted by oil), and construction by 3%.
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