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Weekly Report - 23 September 2003

Tracking trends...

HARD CURRENCY | Remittances could hit US$11bn this year. Remittances from Mexican emigrants in July totalled US$1.12bn. This is slightly lower than the US$1.14bn recorded in June, but what really matters is that it is the fourth month running in which the total exceeds US$1bn; a run unmatched since records on remittances began to be kept in 1995. The accumulated total for the first seven months of the year is US$7.26bn, almost 30% more than in the same period of 2002, and 26% shy of the total for the whole of last year. At the current rate, this year's total could be in the neighbourhood of US$11bn.

Interesting to note is that this year emigrants have been sending more remittances of smaller amounts of money. This is attributed to the lowering of costs due to the use of electronic transfers (which now account for 85% of the total) and greater competition for the business.

EMPLOYMENT | Jobless rate reaches new height. The open unemployment rate in August reached 3.96%, overtaking the five-year record of 3.52% reported last month. In August last year the rate stood at 2.77%. As our readers know, these low figures reflect the highly restrictive definition of open unemployment in Mexico — still, the evolution of the rate is a clear illustration of the trend. The average open unemployment rate for last year was 2.71%; for 2001, 2.46%.

A better approximation to the true situation of Mexico's jobs market is provided by the rate of `critical occupation conditions', which takes into consideration jobs in the informal sector. This stood at 8.75% in August, up from 8.32% a year earlier.

TEQUILA | Less drunk at home, more abroad. In January-August this year only 11m litres of tequila were sold on the domestic market, down from 36m in the same period of last year. Exports, however, grew by 38%, to 69.5m litres between the same two periods. Overall, the tequila industry has been shrinking steadily since its peak in 1994: production in the first eight months of this year reached 83.5m litres, or 34% less than that of the same period four years ago.

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