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Weekly Report - 21 October 2003

Tracking trends...

EL SALVADOR | Price cushions coffee slump. A US$10-per-bag increase in the price fetched by Salvadorean coffee in the 2002-03 season (ended on 30 September) was able to cushion a 14% fall in output and turn it into a decline of only 2% in earnings, according to figures provided by the Consejo Salvadoreño del Café (CSC). Exports totalled 1.7m bags (of 46 kilos), as against just under 2m in the previous system, but the average price rose to about US$60 per bag, which means that earnings for the season must have come close to US$103m.

Trade statistics for the first eight months of the calendar year show coffee bringing in US$90.1m. Coffee is the most important of El Salvador's `traditional' exports, but this year it has accounted for only 4.3% of total export earnings (WR-03-38).

The 2002-03 coffee harvest yielded about 1.3m bags (of 60 kilos), which made it the worst in 40 years. This made a strong impact on the employment scene, as the number of jobs available, 52,000, was down by 22%. This is unlikely to change, as the CSC is predicting for 2003-04 an even smaller harvest, of 1.25m bags.

JAMAICA | Debt burden squeezing fiscal accounts. The finance ministry has been making much of August fiscal accounts showing tax revenues up by 21%, ahead of the 15% increase in expenditure. This notwithstanding, US investment bankers Bear Stearns say the figures show `a country under continued extreme fiscal pressure [where] current trends do not look sustainable.' The bank has focused particularly on the weight of debt-servicing on the fiscal accounts: interest, which amounts to 47% of total expenditure, is taking up 67% of revenues. As put by the bank's senior managing director, Gregory Fisher, `We know of no other country with these ratios.'

CUBA | Brazil offers export-tied debt deal. During Brazilian President Lula da Silva's recent visit to Cuba, a framework agreement was signed on the bilateral debt of US$40m: the two countries expressed `willingness to widen the mechanism for the settlement of the debt, based on assigning to that purpose a percentage of the earnings from [Cuban] exports to Brazil.' No figure was divulged. Contrary to pre-visit reports, bilateral cooperation agreements did not include a special line of credit from Brazil's development bank, BNDES; bank officials said that Brazilian exporters would have, as usual, access to regular BNDES lines.

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