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Weekly Report - 14 October 2003

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BRAZIL | At last, an upturn in industry. Industrial production in August was up 1.5% on July, which in turn had been 0.4% higher than in June, the month when output hit its lowest point since November 2001. The increase in August was the highest on record this year. Encouraging as the recovery was, it has not yet fully offset the accumulated decline: January-August output was 0.5% lower than in the same period of last year.

Ibge reports that expansion was recorded in 13 of the 20 industrial sectors surveyed. The greatest increases in August were in mechanical products (2.9%), textiles (2.9%) and the auto industry (2.3%). The upturn has been attributed chiefly to the lowering of interest rates and government measures to provide easier access to credit for purchases of home appliances and cars.

ARGENTINA | Setback on the farm front. Drought in Argentina's main grain-producing regions has led to the loss of about a quarter of the expected 2003/04 wheat harvest: originally forecast at 15m tonnes (roughly in line with production over the past seven years), it is now only expected to reach 11.2mt — the worst yield in a decade. This could translate into a loss of about US$600m in exports.

ARGENTINA | Sustainability of debt burden in doubt. Even if Argentina gets its bondholding creditors to accept the proposed 75% `haircut', it will face an annual debt-servicing burden of more than US$10bn over the coming 15 years. Treasury secretary Carlos Mosse says it will have to borrow in order to cope, and raises the prospect of a return to international capital markets in the medium-to-long term. Economy minister Roberto Lavagna has reckoned that it will take more than four years to create the conditions for a return to the markets.

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