Movement to change Venezuela's political map has begun in earnest. In another unanimous decision, on 15 October the national electoral council, CNE, set the dates for the signing of petitions for mandate-revocation referendums. First, on 21 November, will be the 46 referendums requested by the pro-government camp against opposition legislators, governors and mayors. Next, on 28 November, will come the 34 referendums requested by the opposition, against President Hugo Chávez and 33 pro-government legislators. The CNE also announced that the referendum on Chávez 's mandate would take precedence over the others.
Even though the decision was backed by the CNE members selected by the opposition, there was a chorus of protests against the timetable, which was described as a government-orchestrated manoeuvre to delay the referendums. Some said the plan was to hold them back until April or May, so they would clash with the campaigns for the regional and municipal elections scheduled for July.
Others ventured that the government wanted a postponement until August so that, even if Chávez 's mandate were revoked, there would be no call for fresh presidential elections, as the constitution provides for his replacement by his vice-president until the end of his original mandate.
Within less than 24 hours all this proved to be an unwarranted rush to judgment. CNE vice-president Ezequiel Zamora announced that the council members had agreed to set the date for the first referendum, the one on Chávez , on 27 March. `Only force majeure,' he said, `could prevent this from being the date for the presidential revocatorio.' The umbrella opposition coalition, Coordinadora Democrática, promptly accepted this as the date to work towards.
The first big test will thus take place in the month following the collection of signatures endorsing the referendum petitions. That is when the CNE will scrutinise the endorsements, determine their validity, and count to see if they add up to the requisite 20% of the electorate — in Chávez 's case, that means at least 2.4m. It is highly likely that some of the petitions will fail to make the grade, particularly those filed mainly for nuisance value. An illustration is provided by the 64 requests filed by Acción Democrática (AD) against pro-government legislators: 31 were rejected at the outset because they had been prepared so sloppily.
Getting tactical
One opposition party, the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS), has added a further four referendum petitions, against pro-government legislators. This does not sound as impressive as the 33 successful filings against chavista legislators made by AD, but this is because the MAS has planned its move more carefully. It has targeted chavista legislators who either have no alternate to replace them if their mandates are revoked, or whose alternates are members of opposition parties.
The MAS's purpose is no secret: it wants to tilt the balance of power in the national assembly, where the pro-government camp's majority is very slender: it has 51% of the 165 seats. The arithmetic, of course, could change if the petitions filed by the pro-government camp against opposition legislators are successful.
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