Figures for the current calendar year show that recovery has already spread to volume. In the first nine months of the year production has increased by 1.2% on last year, to 7.9m bags, and exports by 4.8% to 7.4m bags.
VENEZUELA | Oil to fuel reactivation in 2004. The budget for 2004 submitted last week to the national assembly assumes GDP growth of 6.5%, fuelled by a 16.9% expansion of the oil sector and 2.6% growth of the non-oil economy. This year the economy is expected to contract by 11% (the worst decline ever), largely because of the 11.5% slump of the oil sector, attributed to the two-month strike-lockout staged by the opposition in a bid to force President Hugo Chávez to resign.
The government is assuming the price for Venezuela's mix of crudes to average US$18.50 per barrel, higher than the US$16 calculated for this year's budget, but lower than the US$24.67 actually received so far this year. Oil production is expected to run at 3.02m barrels per day, as against the current 2.9m bpd.
Finance minister Tobías Nóbrega has ruled out a `maxi-devaluation': he expects the exchange rate to slide gradually to Bs/2,016 per US dollar (from the current fixed rate of Bs/1,600). Spending is calculated at US$26bn; in local-currency terms, 20% up on the 2003 budget. Inflation is expected to come down from this year's projected 30% to 26%.
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