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Weekly Report - 21 October 2003

Tracking trends...

NICARAGUA | `Debt write-off at risk'. Finance minister Eduardo Montealegre used a press conference on 17 October to warn congress that if it introduced substantial changes in next year's draft budget, Nicaragua runs the risk of losing the 80% debt write-off under the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) scheme. Certification of entitlement is due on 19 December. The budget submitted to the assembly is already overtight, as it envisages a deficit of 7.2% of GDP, as against a target of 6.9%. If Nicaragua misses its chance in December, said Montealegre, from next year it faces interest payments of US$195.3m on its US$6.5bn external debt.

COSTA RICA | Agricultural upturn continues. The turnaround in agricultural output which began in April last year has continued into this year: overall production in January-August was 3.6% up on the same period of 2002. Leading the expansion were pineapples, with exports rising 22%, to US$121m; coffee, up 13%, to US$159m; and bananas, up 9%, to US$353m.

TRINIDAD & TOBAGO | More taxes ahead for oil & gas. Prime minister (and finance minister) Patrick Manning announced last week that a review of the existing oil and gas taxation régime is underway, with a view to eliminating `certain anomalies' and ensuring that the country `gets its fair share of economic rent from these non-renewable resources.' An international consulting firm working on this has already submitted an interim report; the final one is due within a month, and the new régime should be implemented on 1 January 2004. Industry sources say that this announcement could lead to a temporary suspension of planned investments, until the nature of the revised régime becomes clear.

CUBA | Debt-reduction request to Argentina. Argentine foreign minister Rafael Bielsa announced that during his recent visit to Cuba he was presented with a request for a 75% write-down of that country's US$1.9bn bilateral debt with Argentina. The cut is the same as Argentina has asked of its creditors.

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