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Weekly Report - 28 October 2003

Tracking trends...

GROWTH OUTLOOK | Slight downturn in August. Recovery has not yet arrived. Economic activity in August, as measured by the Igae index (which foreshadows GDP), was down 0.6% on July. The only broad sector to register an increase was services (up 0.6%), while industry was down 2.9% and agriculture 1.6%.

Industry's poor performance was attributable to the 4.7% slump in manufacturing, which offset gains in construction (2.4%), mining (0.7%), and electricity, gas & water (0.9%).

President Vicente Fox last week told businessmen that the government has been concentrating its efforts on the domestic market, through what he described as the biggest package of public and private investment in decades. This, he said, had already begun to translate into the construction of 500,000 homes this year, to be followed by 750,000 in 2004.

CREDIT | Consumers lead upturn in bank lending. Manuel Medina, president of the bankers' association, ABM, reports that over the last 15 months bank lending to the private sector has increased by 11%. This has been an uneven expansion, as consumer credit grew by 30%, while loans to companies did so by only 8%. He noted that mortgage lending had started growing for the first time since 1994 —a a modest 2.4% in August, which fits it with the increases in construction cited above.

Guillermo Prieto, president of the Bolsa, maintains that the figures for bank lending to companies do not convey an accurate overall picture, since the stockmarket has become the main means of securing financing for companies. He said that seven out of every 10 financing operations were conducted through the Bolsa.

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