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Economy & Business - June 2011 (ISSN 1741-7430)

BRAZIL

Guido Mantega pointed out that on 20 June it cost 41.2 basis points (bps) to insure against a default by the Brazilian government, while on the same day it cost 49.7 bps to insure against a default by the US government. This was the first time ever that Brazil has been seen as a better credit risk than the US.
The reason for this is that there is a strong likelihood that the US government and the Republican dominated congress will not be able to agree on a deal to allow the US to revise the terms of its current budget ceiling on borrowing before the deadline of 2 August. If there is no deal, the US Treasury has said that it will default: it could stop paying federal pensions or it could stop paying the debt. The Treasury's quarterly payment day for its debt is 15 August.
It is worth noting that Moody's, one of the two main international credit rating agencies, has raised its rating for Brazil from Baa3 to Baa2 with a positive outlook. Moody's argued that Brazil was now moving on to a more sustainable long term growth path.

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