Back
LatinNews Daily - 16 May 2011
Alfonsín has a fighting chance
Significance: Alfonsín's improved standing emerges as the
province of Santa Fe, a crucial district in the national vote, goes to the polls
next Sunday (22 May) to select, in simultaneous open primaries, candidates to
compete for the governorship this year. The outcome of those primaries, where a
Partido Socialista (PS)-UCR centre-left coalition (Frente Progresista Cívico y
Social, FPCyS) seeks to retain power in the election (on 24 July), is critical
to putting key pieces of the national electoral puzzle in place.
Key points:
• Antonio Bonfatti, pre-candidate for governor in the FPCyS primary, and a
close ally of outgoing Governor Hermes Binner (PS), is rising in the polls with
a survey by the centre for municipal and provincial studies (Cemupro) giving him
the lead with 43%. In second and third place are National Deputy Rubén
Giustiniani (PS, 32%) and the mayor of Santa Fe city, Mario Barletta (UCR, 20%).
An Ipsos-Mora y Araujo poll maintains Bonfatti's lead but by a smaller margin:
41% against Giustiniani's 34%.
• If Bonfatti wins, an Alfonsín-Binner candidacy would become almost certain,
increasing Alfonsín's chances of growing in the polls with the consolidation of
a national level FPCyS.
• The Management & Fit poll commissioned by Noticias put Fernández
comfortably ahead with 38.6% of voting intentions, followed by Alfonsín on
22.7%. None of the other three candidates reached 6%. Elisa Carrió of the
Coalición Cívica fared best on 5.7%, followed by Alberto Rodríguez Saá of the
Peronismo Federal (5.6%); and Eduardo Duhalde of Unión Popular (5.3%).
• To win in the first round of the general election, a presidential candidate
has to pass the 40% mark with a 10 point margin over the runner up. Support for
President Fernández has been constant at (a relatively low) 33%-39% for the past
six months. If Alfonsín could capture some votes from the undecided camp and/or
from the other candidates, he could force a second round runoff (20 November).
If there is a second round, Fernández is vulnerable.