The economy probably grew by 2.5%, year-on-year, in the second quarter of 2011. The government’s critics happily point out that the recovery appears to be running out of steam.
An anti-government Think Tank, Ecoanalítica, says that the recovery in the first half of 2011 was hampered by “the new economic model, which not only arrests the development of the private sector, but also the public sector.”
According to the firm, both the public and private sector are lagging behind their potential. It said that “Hence, low overall growth rates. Thus, what we used to call boom or surge when oil prices would rise, now, we just call it a break.”
Ecoanalítica argues that that although the economy is recovering, the rate of growth is slowing. “This means that the country has not fully recovered yet from the recession of the past two years. A 2.5% rate is very far from the rate actually needed to overcome recession accordingly. GDP remains significantly lower than in the first half of 2008”.
Statistics from the central bank show that despite increased household spending (up 3.4% in real terms, the highest level for a second quarter since 1998), this was not magnified by increased spending by the public and private sectors.
The key oil industry was up by only 0.1% in the first half of 2011, even though the non-oil economy was up by 4%. Both figures are comparisons with 2008.
