Two separate opinion surveys (by the polling firms CEP and Cerc) show the approval ratings of both the government and President Ricardo Lagos up to 52%. This restores the level of support Lagos and the Concertación last enjoyed in December 2000. Focusing on individual parties, the CEP survey shows the Christian Democrats (DC) recovering their position as the best supported one, pushing the rightwing Unión Demócrata Independiente (UDI) back into second place.
This, plus the fact that the CEP survey also showed support for UDI's Joaquín Lavín (frontrunner in the future presidential stakes) slightly down, was gleefully celebrated in Concertación circles - until cooler minds began to point out that the swing was not decisive, but that it could nonetheless have negative consequences for the government.
UDI's policy dilemma
The greatest risk is that the UDI may abandon its policy of cooperating with the government on major reforms. UDI leader Pablo Longueira adopted this policy in January, when the government was under heavy pressure due to the corruption scandals. He did so against considerable opposition from UDI hardliners, who saw no reason why they should not take full advantage of the Concertación's weakness and 'go for the kill'.
Now Longueira's critics are interpreting the recent polls as a sign that the policy of cooperation yielded no dividends among the general public. Nor, they add, did Longueira's attempt to wrest the initiative from the government on the human rights issue. They are particularly incensed at seeing the DC rise back to the top of the party popularity league. Their response is to demand a visible shift back to opposition.
But there are also cooler heads within UDI who say this would be a bad mistake. They point out that the CEP poll shows 57% of respondents agreeing that Chile's main national issues should be tackled via a consensus between the Concertación and the Alianza por Chile (the rightwing coalition of which UDI is a member).
They also note that not all findings are favourable to the DC. For instance, 40% of all respondents see the Christian Democrats drifting away from the Concertación - and 63% of DC members dissatisfied with this trend.
Presidential stakes unchanged
Within the Concertación, those counselling circumspection also note that UDI's Lavín remains the respondents' favourite as next President, with 36% of preferences. The runner-up, Soledad Alvear of the DC, attracts less than a third of that (11%). Third in line is Michelle Bachelet, also of the DC, with 9% - which puts Lavín 16 points ahead of the combined support for both leading DC rivals.
Moreover, the luck of the draw actually biased the CEP poll in favour of the government: 32% of respondents identified themselves as pro-Concertación, and only 18% as supporters of the Alianza por Chile, which is nowhere near the proportions that emerged from the last elections.
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