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Weekly Report - 26 January 2012 (WR-12-04)

CHILE: Ruling coalition tottering

Try as he might President Sebastián Piñera simply cannot get on top of events. He seized the initiative over the Christmas period by meeting all of his post-dictatorship predecessors to discuss a potential reform of the political system, but after the senior partner in his ruling coalition, the ultra-conservative Unión Demócrata Independiente (UDI), opposed the change he tried to kick the issue into the long grass and move the focus onto other reforms. His own party, Renovación Nacional (RN), the junior coalition partner, had other ideas. It worked with an opposition party to design a radical overhaul of the existing political system. Not only is Piñera once again on the back foot for lacking the courage of his convictions but his coalition also faces unprecedented strain, which could ultimately lead to rupture.

It is fair to assume that when President Piñera abnegated responsibility for the reform of the Pinochet-era binomial political system earlier this year, and said that progress would only be possible in the event of consensus between the country’s two coalitions, what he did not have in mind was for the RN to stitch up a reform proposal with the opposition Democracia Cristiana (DC), the most centrist party in the quadripartite Concertación. It is the first time since the return to democracy in 1990 that two parties from across the political divide in Chile have struck an accord in this manner over anything.

The proposals in the document negotiated between the RN and DC, entitled “A new political regime for Chile”, are remarkable. They go far beyond a reform of the binomial system by advocating a semi-presidential system, along the lines of France and Haiti, and to a lesser extent Peru. The President would serve as head of state; a Prime Minister as head of government. The President could dissolve congress once during his term; his remit would be the politics of state, such as foreign affairs, national defence and public administration. The Prime Minister, designated by the President and ratified by congress, would take responsibility for the day-to-day running of the country.

The document also proposed enlarging congress and the establishment of a “corrected proportional electoral system” to replace the current binomial system. It does not offer any explanation for exactly how this would work in practice. The current system, however skewed, is, after all, a PR system of sorts: the two largest coalitions split the two seats in each electoral district unless one coalition ticket takes more than the two-thirds of the vote needed to secure both seats.

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