Development: On 7 March in Havana, Cuba, President Juan Manuel Santos of Colombia met his Cuban and Venezuelan counterparts, Raúl Castro and Hugo Chávez.
Significance: Santos and Castro reportedly spent over four hours together at Castro’s private residence in Havana. According to one reputable commentator, Venezuela’s Nelson Bocaranda, the row over Cuba’s invitation to the Summit of the Americas in Cartagena next month was a smokescreen for the real agenda - talks between Santos, the Castro brothers and Chávez about the down-but-not-out largest Colombian guerrilla group, Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc).
Key points:
• As expected, Cuba will not attend the hemispheric get-together of the 33 members of the Organization of the American States (OAS), of which Cuba is not a member. Santos said that as the host, Colombia could not get “a consensus” on extending an invitation to Cuba, as per a demand issued by the Venezuela-led left-wing regional integration bloc, Alianza Bolivariana para los Pueblos de Nuestra América (Alba).
• Santos publically thanked Castro for his “understanding and his generous gesture in not wanting to create a problem, either for the summit or for Colombia.” He added that Colombia would work on a diplomatic solution to ensure that this “uncomfortable situation does not present itself again”.
• This is the first trip by a Colombian president to Cuba since Andrés Pastrana (1998-2002) went in 1999. Curiously, Cuba’s then-president Fidel Castro (1959-2008) introduced Pastrana to a young Hugo Chávez and Cuba (along with Venezuela) went on to provide important behind-the-scenes support to peace talks between the Pastrana administration and the two left-wing Colombian guerrilla groups, the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN) and the Farc. Many former Colombian guerrillas and their families have retired in Cuba.
• Arguably, the context surrounding Santos’s trip is not that different – amid potential moves once again towards some form of talks with the Farc, which most security analysts agree is on the verge of a military defeat. In response to a 4 March letter from the Farc, Angelino Garzón, Colombia’s vice-president, repeated in Madrid, Spain, on 5 March that the Bogotá government would “not negotiate without conditions”, meaning that the Farc “abandon the path of terrorism”. Garzón listed the conditions as: the release of all remaining hostages, an end to drug trafficking, an end to the use of landmines and the release of all of forcibly recruited adults and children.
• The Alba countries’ threat to boycott the Cartagena Summit if Cuba was not invited looks deflated, after Chávez told Santos that he aimed to attend, health permitting. Ecuador’s President Rafael Correa, the strongest proponent of the boycott, has not yet responded.
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