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Weekly Report - 25 November 2003

Tracking trends...

VENEZUELA | Growth outlook. The Venezuelan economy has continued its downslide: in the third quarter, activity was running 7.1% lower than a year earlier (making it the seventh quarter running to show year-on-year falls). The only comfort the central bank was able to draw from the situation was that this represented a lesser pace of decline: in the second quarter, GDP was down 9.2% on the same period of 2002.

Chiefly responsible for the QIII contraction was a 9% fall in the oil sector (which accounts for just under a third of GDP), led by a slump in production in the state subsector; the non-oil economy shrank by 6%, with construction down 33.9%, commerce down 10% and manufacturing down 9.9%. The accumulated fall in the first three quarters of the year was 14.7%.

COLOMBIA | Market upswing boosts export earnings. Colombia's export earnings in the first nine months of this year reached US$9.55bn, or 7.7% more than in the same period of 2002. The increase was borne mainly by raw materials, many of them buoyed by better world prices. Earnings from oil, coal, coffee and ferronickel jointly grew by 15.9%, to US$4.45bn -- or 46.6% of total export earnings, up from 43.3% in the same period last year.

Even the flagging oil industry was favoured, achieving a 5.3% increase in earnings despite a 13.9% fall in volume. The end of the prolonged coffee crisis translated a 4.5% increase in volume into a 9.9% rise in earnings. Similarly, ferronickel was up 14.3% in volume, 41% in earnings. Coal was a different proposition: it achieved a 47% increase in earnings, but on the strength of a 65.5% increase in volume.

ECUADOR | Earnings lifted by oil price. Improved world oil prices have raised Petroecuador's oil export earnings in the first 10 months of the year to US$933.6m, or 14.1% more than in the comparable period of 2002. The state oil company's contribution to the fiscal purse increased by about the same amount. The price for Ecuador's mix of crudes averaged US$26.12 per barrel in January-October.

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