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Andean Group - September 2012 (ISSN 1741-4466)

VENEZUELA: David vs. Goliath

Some 18m Venezuelans will vote in presidential elections on 7 October without having witnessed a single debate between the five candidates. In a country where about 25% of the population still lives below the poverty line, they are being offered a stark choice between a benign, paternalistic socialist State and an avaricious, neo-liberal administration run by an ‘imperial’ capitalist elite, according to President Hugo Chávez of the ruling Partido Unido Socialista de Venezuela (PSUV). Chávez expects a “knock-out” victory of 10m votes — an ambitious target given that the turnout typically averages 11m. While the main opposition coalition and its allies nominally won the last national election (Legislative, September 2009) with 51.3% of the popular vote, most (of the wildly varying) polls have indicated a clear lead for Chávez, who has demi-god status among his core base of supporters. For them, voting Chávez is a religion, not a political choice. But, as the past year has made clear, Chávez is not immortal. And not even the staunchest government supporters really buy the idea of ‘Chavismo sin Chávez’.

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