Weekly Report - 7 February 2013 (WR-13-05)

If Ecuador’s opinion pollsters are to be believed President Rafael Correa should cruise home in the first round with over 50% of the vote on 17 February. These should be treated with caution: all of the country’s pollsters also predicted a comfortable victory for Correa in a key referendum in May 2011 which ended up being a far closer affair. They also seriously underestimated the support of former president Lucio Gutiérrez (2003-2005) in his 2009 defeat against Correa. Still, even if Correa falls short of 50% he only requires 40% plus a 10-percentage-point lead over his nearest challenger to avoid having to contest a second round run-off, which he should manage.

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