The survey reveals that confidence in a rebound remains fairly strong: the consensus is 3.3% in 2003 and 3.8% in 2004. The Mexican economy contracted by 0.3% in 2001; last year it grew by only 0.9%. The OECD said days ago that Mexico's current long-term growth potential of about 4% is `too slow for a country with low levels of income and productivity and high rates of population growth.'
As to foreign direct investment, the survey consensus is that it will total US$11.77bn this year, then rise to US$13.74bn in 2004. The latest official figure puts FDI in the first nine months of the year at US$8.1bn, which suggests that it would have to rise substantially in the fourth quarter to meet the survey's projection.
INVESTMENT | Assembly plants pledge US$900m. The economy ministry announced last week that the maquiladora sector has submitted a plan that envisages `investments above the regular ones of US$900m' next year. According to the ministry, the `multiplier effect' of those investments would translate into the creation of almost 50,000 direct jobs.
Most of the investments will go to the northern states, which have suffered the bulk of the job losses over the last couple of years. Among the firms planning additional investments for 2004 are Panasonic, Sony, Toshiba and Motorola.
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