José María Moreno, head of the Bolivian arm of Repsol YPF (one of the prospective vendors), says that Bolivia runs the risk of completely losing the opportunity to export gas to the US and Mexico. Slightly less pessimistic, Bolivian development minister Javier Nogales said last week, `We shall have to get in the queue and wait for many years. Probably we won't be able to export until 2007.'
Actually, it is still uncertain if the Bolivian electorate will want to export at all — a decision it will have to make in a referendum promised by the government of President Carlos Mesa.
BOLIVIA | Growth outlook better in 2004. This year, despite the social and political convulsions that peaked in October, Bolivia's economy will record 2.6% growth, according to central bank president Antonio Morales. With inflation at just over 3%, unemployment — up for the fifth year running — is expected to reach 10%, and the fiscal deficit is seen as closing at 8% of GDP. For next year the bank's outlook is 3.6% growth and a reduction of the fiscal deficit to somewhere between 6% and 6.8%.
COLOMBIA | Growth expectations up. Colombia's economy will show an expansion of 3.5% this year, reports finance minister Alberto Carrasquilla. This is 1.5 points higher that the government's original forecast (it is the first time since 1995 that this has happened). Accumulated growth in January-September was 3.38%, the highest rate for that period in seven years. The government expects growth next year to slow down slightly, to about 3.3%.
On 20 December congress approved a pared-down package of tax adjustments, expected to raise next year about Col$2bn (US$700m) — 30% less that what the government had expected from its ill-fated reform referendum [WR-03-42
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