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Weekly Report - 12 August 2003

Tracking trends

BUSINESS | Closures running at 13 a day. In the first half of the year business closures were running at an average 13 a day, according to the Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS), the social security institute on whose records employment rates are based. By end-June the number of registered businesses had fallen to 808,966, compared with 811,244 a year earlier.

The category which recorded the highest number of closures was that of firms with up to 100 employees. The states with the highest numbers were Oaxaca, Coahuila, Colima, Sinaloa and the federal district (Mexico city). These closures are the backdrop to the rise in the unofficial unemployment rate in June to 3.17%, the highest since February 1999. Mexico lists as unemployed those over 12 years of age who haven't worked a single hour in the week of the survey.

INVESTMENT | Outlays on machinery & buildings are down. Gross fixed investment in the first five months of this year was down 2% on the same period of 2002. This average is the result of a 6.7% plunge in investment on machinery and equipment, set against a 3.8% increase in outlays on construction.

May figures suggest that the decline in the machinery bracket is actually steepening, with greater cutbacks on imported machinery. Also, investment in construction is growing less rapidly.

TRADE | Oil price helps shrink deficit. The trade balance for the first half of the year showed a deficit of US$1.59bn; 48% less than in the same period of last year. Exports in this period were up 2% overall - the result of a price-boosted 41.4% increase in oil export earnings, set against a 1.2% decline in non-oil exports. The lowering of the deficit was also helped by the stagnation of imports (they were only 0.5% higher than a year earlier).

Towards the end of the period there were signs of an upturn in export earnings, again driven by oil, accompanied by a sharper increase in imports - which could signal an industrial upturn in the offing, particularly given that intermediate goods were the bracket with the highest growth rate.

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