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Weekly Report - 3 February 2004

Tracking trends...

HARD-CURRENCY INFLOWS | Remittances second only to oil. Remittances by Mexican expatriates last year reached an unprecedented US$11bn (of which US$3.33bn arrived in the last quarter). This represents an increase of 35.1% on 2002 -- though it is worth keeping in mind that the central bank attributes this not only to an increase in the number of people sending money home, but also to `improved accounting coverage'.

Only oil export revenues surpassed remittances: boosted by improved world prices, they reached US$16.28bn. Foreign direct investment (FDI), at its lowest in seven years, brought in US$11bn, and tourism, an estimated US$9.2bn.

The result: the current account deficit was down by 34.2%, to US$9.2bn.

EMPLOYMENT | Decline in manufacturing. The latest figures on employment in manufacturing show a 3.9% year-on-year decline in the first 11 months of 2003, with a slight steepening of the curve in November. The fact that the number of hours worked fell by 4.3% reveals an accompanying decline in productivity.

The situation in the maquila (assembly) sector was somewhat better. In November employment in this sector was down 1.3% on a year earlier, but the number of hours worked were down by only 0.3%. Most of the job losses took place in maquiladoras farther from the border: the federal district (-44.5%) and the state of Mexico (-26.1%), Durango (-18.4%) and Aguascalientes (-17.7%). In northern states, most immediately responsive to change in the US economy, employment in the maquila sector actually increased, if slightly.

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