Significance: In scenarios without former president Lula da Silva (2003-2011), Bolsonaro has strengthened his position in the polls ahead of the first-round vote, rising to 19% of voting intentions, up from 17% in April. However, Lula continues to lead the polls comfortably, with 30% of vote intentions, despite the fact he is almost certain to be barred from running by the electoral authorities due to his conviction for corruption. Without Lula, blank, null, and undecideds reach 34%, highlighting both the disaffection of the Brazilian electorate and the huge potential for a change in the election scenario before the first round in October.
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