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Mexico & Nafta - May 2019

Economic Highlights

Downwards GDP revision: On 1 April Mexico’s finance ministry (SHCP) projected that the country’s GDP growth will stand between 1.1% and 2.1% in 2019, a downwards revision from projections published in December 2018. The SHCP has revised its GDP projections downwards following slow growth in the fourth quarter of 2018, which could last until the end of the first quarter of 2019. This also reflects the international economic scenario, with a projected slowdown of the global economy. However, the SHCP notes that its projections for Mexico’s GDP growth do not consider the possible effects of the current administration’s strategy for economic development, which could lead to greater growth. The SHCP’s GDP forecast revision after in March international credit ratings agency, Fitch Ratings reduced its 2019 Mexico economic growth forecast to 1.6% from 2.1%, citing persistent trends hampering growth such as a fall in oil output, a decline in government spending, and slowing job creation.

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