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Weekly Report - 01 August 2019 (WR-19-30)

COLOMBIA: Budget setback for Duque

Colombian Finance Minister Alberto Carrasquilla presented a draft budget bill for 2020 to congress on 29 July. Carrasquilla insisted the proposed budget would reactivate the economy. But no sooner had he presented it than the central bank, Banco de la República, revised its economic growth forecasts for this year and next downwards. Carrasquilla predicated the budget on GDP growth of 4% in 2020; the central bank forecast growth of 3.2%-3.3%. This divergence is problematic for the government led by President Iván Duque because it lacks a majority in congress, and the opposition could be more inclined to accept the central bank figures, especially with regional elections set for October, just as the budget will be debated.

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