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The outlook for US-LAC relations

Introduction

The January 2017-January 2021 US administration led by President Donald J Trump is drawing to a close. This report looks at the likely future of relations between the United States and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) under either a second Trump administration, or a new Joe Biden one. The starting point is that over the last four years there has been a rise in tension between the United States and its Western Hemisphere neighbours, including Canada, Mexico and Central America, the Caribbean, and the countries of South America. This year’s coronavirus pandemic has had far-reaching negative effects in the hemisphere. President Trump’s ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA) agenda, his vision of US exceptionalism, and his aversion to multilateralism has caused diplomatic and political friction across six key regional issues. But this friction has not been universal, as some governments have approved of the direction of US policy or have been led by populists who admire and wish to emulate the US president’s approach. The net effect has been to contribute to a more fragmented and divided region.

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