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Weekly Report - 8 July 2003

VENEZUELA in brief: dual dollar rate mulled; inflation; insolvency threat

* Dual-rate dollar mulled for Venezuela.  After a series of contradictory statements, central bank director Domingo Maza announced on 3 July that the government is looking at the possibility of allowing a parallel exchange market to coexist with an official, fixed-rate one, when it phases out the controversial exchange controls that have been recently placed under the wing of the finance ministry. 

The parallel market, it seems, would not be entirely free: according to Maza it would function under central bank supervision, for specific transactions. The exchange rate on this market, though, would be set by market forces. 

Maza did warn, however, that no final decision had been reached. 

In the meantime, it is expected that the exchange-control agency, Cadivi, will be distributing as much as US$45m a day by August, which should provide a measure of relief to dollar-starved industrialists who have been running short of inputs and spare parts. 

The central bank reports that since exchange controls were introduced on 6 February, Venezuela's international reserves have increased by US$3.96bn, and now stand at US$18bn -of which just over US$1bn is held by the Fiem stabilisation fund. 

* Inflation in Venezuela this year will reach 35-36%, the highest rate in six years, according to finance minister Tobí­as Nóbrega. Last year's 31.2% was the highest in five years. 

In the first half of this year, accumulated inflation was 15.4%, compared with 12.8% in the same period of 2002. 

Though Nóbrega says that the crisis has bottomed out, he clearly expects the inflationary momentum to continue. He says, though, that private forecasts of a rate somewhere between 45% and 70% are grossly exaggerated. 

Nóbrega expects the Venezuelan economy to contract this year by 10.7%, considerably lower than the 17% ventured by the IMF in its last forecast, which was considerably influenced by the effects of the shutdown of the oil industry.

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