The general expectation that President Néstor Kirchner would be at the mercy of the bigger political beasts in the Partido Justicialista jungle may prove to be false. Kirchner is exploiting the powers of the presidency to back at least four independent candidates for key political jobs, thus going against the PJ (or Peronist) machine.
The most important of the kirchneristas is the Frepaso incumbent mayor of Buenos Aires, Aníbal Ibarra. Kirchner showed his backing for him by turning up to celebrate the arrival of 58 new patrol cars for the city police.
Carefully, Kirchner did not say that this photo-opportunity meant that he was endorsing Ibarra, but that he was supporting policies that produced results.
Nevertheless, the commentariat reckons that Kirchner is behind Ibarra, thanks to the support of Alberto Fernández, Kirchner's jefe del gabinete. The move will produce tensions inside the cabinet since the justice minister, Gustavo Beliz is a longstanding opponent of Ibarra's.
The other risk that Kirchner is running is that Ibarra's main opponent, Mauricio Macri, a scion of the powerful Macri family, will win the election in Buenos Aires. The Macri family, by all accounts, did remarkably well in anticipating the devaluation and bank freeze at the end of 2001 and beginning of 2002.
If Macri wins, Kirchner's political currency will have been badly devalued. The opinion polls show Macri in the lead: Boca Juniors, his football team, is also riding high, which may sway undecided voters. The election is on 24 August.
In the Provinces. The other three kirchnerista candidates are for the governorships of three states: Eduardo Rosso in Río Negro, Carlos Rovira in Misiones and Emilio Martínez in Entre Ríos.
The PJ hierarchy is particularly annoyed that Kirchner is backing these quasi-independents. The commentariat see them as the beginnings of a kirchnerista movement independent of the PJ.
The president's criticism of prominent Peronists in these three states as old style politicians is a covert attack on Carlos Menem, who still has clients in the PJ. Jorge Busti and Ramón Puerta, whom the PJ is backing in Entre Ríos and Misiones, respectively, are both menemistas. So is Julio Nazareno, the embattled head of the supreme court.
In congress. Kirchner is also trying to build up his bloc in congress. This is known as the Corriente Federal, and is likely to stretch beyond Peronists. Prudently, the Peronist high command, which is dominated by supporters of Eduardo Duhalde, is not squaring up to Kirchner, yet. The high command realises that it needs to wait and see what happens in the elections.
Duhalde was the interim president last year and Kirchner's predecessor and, many think, a likely successor, especially if Kirchner does the unpopular heavy economic lifting that Duhalde avoided.
It looks as though the menemistas sense that their patron's career may be coming to an end. Already 30 members of the lower chamber who backed Menem's abortive election bid have defected to Kirchner's bloc. This, analysts say, brings Kirchner's support in the lower chamber up to 133 seats, out of a total of 257. Mustering these votes on the floor of the chamber, however, will be different from calculating them on paper.
Elections. The near constant round of provincial and municipal elections over the next six months has already started.
Kirchner was boosted by the first result, an easy win for his (and the PJ's) candidate, José Manuel de la Sota, in the gubernatorial elections in Córdoba. Altogether there are 20 further elections up to November. How they play out will shape Kirchner's administration.
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