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Economy & Business - April 2022

ECUADOR: Ukraine war brings mixed fortunes for exporters

After higher-than-expected GDP growth of 4.2% in 2021, in late March Ecuador’s central bank (BCE) published its growth expectations for 2022, forecasting a more modest 2.8% increase. Crucially, the BCE highlighted that this forecast factors in “the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine” on the country’s exports, which has been contradictory. While the war has severely disrupted Ecuador’s non-oil exports to Russia, which amounted to US$1bn in 2021, it has also pushed crude prices to levels not seen in years, increasing the flow of dollars into the treasury.

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