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Weekly Report - 20 April 2004

Tracking trends

ARGENTINA | Strong first-quarter growth. Argentina's economy grew at an annual rate of 10% in the first quarter, economy minister Roberto Lavagna reported last week. This, however, has not led to any upward revision of the official projection for the year as a whole, which is 5.5%.
The economy ministry also reported that in 2003 about 60% of the jobs lost in the previous two years were recovered: 304,000 new jobs were created, against 533,000 lost in 2001-02. In January this year (last available data) there were 4.7m workers in formal employment, or 229,000 fewer that in the same month of 2003. The sectors employing more people than three years ago are foodstuffs (up 7,000) fishing and transport (each up by 5,000) and mining (up 4,000). Though construction recorded the highest rate of job creation, it still employs 42,000 fewer people than in early 2001.

BRAZIL | More slight easing on money front. The central bank last week lowered the benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, to 16%. This is the lowest rate since March 2001; though most market analysts say it is what they had expected, industrialists and unions have decried the reduction as insufficient to spur reactivation.

URUGUAY | Robust expansion predicted. Uruguay's GDP will grow this year by about 9%, predicts the economics institute of the state university. This, it says, will not be adversely affected by the fact that it is an electoral year. Last year GDP grew by 2.5%. The institute estimates a 30% increase in investment (versus an 11% fall in 2003), and growth of 15% in exports and 18% in imports (as against 4.1% and 1.5%, respectively, last year). It sees the open unemployment rate falling from 17% to 13.5% over the year.

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