On 29 November, Brazil’s media reported that president-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) has informed close allies that he intends to nominate his defence minister and new commanders for Brazil’s three armed forces (army, navy and air force) next week.
Analysis:
Since his campaign, Lula had made it clear that he intended to name a civilian to head up the defence ministry and it was expected that he would make this appointment before making a final decision about the heads of the armed forces. However, according to Brazilian newspapers Folha de S. Paulo and Estado de S. Paulo, the three top commanders have decided to bring their resignations forward to next month, before he takes office in January. Now, Lula is rushing to find replacements that, at the same time would be loyal to the new government but also respected by a large part of the military. Brazil’s society has been deeply divided since the 30 October election, in which Lula narrowly defeated President Jair Bolsonaro (Partido Liberal, PL) and there have also been significant signs of polarisation in the armed forces. Bolsonaro drew members of the military to his support base, giving them power, resources, and positions in his government, so many remain loyal to the outgoing president and it has been a challenge for the PT to deal with some radical military figures.
- The commanders Marco Antônio Freire Gomes (army), Carlos de Almeida Baptista Júnior (air force) and Almir Garnier (navy) are expected to leave their posts at the end of December, although this has not been officially announced.
- Two former defence ministers interviewed by Folha de S. Paulo classified the commanders’ decision as an act of “insubordination”, although a source from the military said it aimed to “make the power transition easier” for the new government.
- The defence ministry was created in 1999 and was led by a civilian until 2018. The favourite to lead the ministry today is José Múcio, the former president of Brazil’s federal account court (TCU). Monteiro served as federal deputy for Pernambuco’s state (1991-2007), has good relationships with military officers, and is considered a skilled negotiator. Even Bolsonaro’s vice-president, general Hamilton Mourão (Republicanos), suggested he would support Múcio’s nomination.
- Also yesterday, a group of PT deputies asked the country’s supreme court (STF) to investigate a member of the military Ronaldo Ribeiro Travassos, who appears in a video and audio messages circulated on social media incentivising colleagues to participate in the protests that are asking for a military coup to prevent Lula’s inauguration on 1 January. In the messages, Travassos also defends the killings of Lula’s supporters. Travassos works for the presidential cabinet for institutional security (GSI) which is currently led by General Augusto Heleno, one of Bolsonaro’s closest allies.
- On 28 November, a letter signed by some members of the military reserve forces began circulating on social media, indirectly criticising the armed forces’ lack of response to pro-Bolsonaro protesters’ plea for help in overturning the election results. According to Folha de S. Paulo, the military leadership is analysing possible sanctions for active military personnel that might have signed the letter.
Looking Ahead: According to Brazilian news web site G1, the favourite candidates for the armed forces are Júlio César de Arruda (army), Aguiar Freire (navy) and Marcelo Damasceno (air force). The three are among the generals that have served for the longest time in Brazil’s armed forces and are well respected by members of the military.