Security & Strategic Review - February 2023

COLOMBIA: The shifting dynamics of conflict

The Colombian NGO Indepaz published its annual report on the power dynamics and geographical spread of Colombia’s internal conflict on 1 January, outlining shifting trends from 2021-2022. Among these, it highlights how dissident units of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc) guerrilla group have consolidated into three separate alliances; the “urbanisation” of the conflict; and a continued shift away from direct confrontation with the security forces. Whilst some of these dynamics may aid President Gustavo Petro in his mission to strike peace deals with all illegal armed groups, they are also likely to muddy the water when it comes to assessing compliance with any such peace agreements.

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