Ecuador’s President Guillermo Lasso is staring down the barrel of a second impeachment trial, in which the odds would be stacked heavily against him. On 4 March the national assembly overwhelmingly voted to approve a report recommending the launch of impeachment proceedings due to Lasso’s alleged failure to prevent corruption in his government. With an impeachment motion likely to be submitted imminently, his best hopes for political survival lie with either the constitutional court or a constitutional mechanism known as the ‘muerte cruzada’, which would enable him to dissolve the legislature and convene snap general elections.
With 104 votes in favour, 18 against, and three abstentions, legislators voted to approve a report by a congressional commission accusing President Lasso of failures in his response to allegedly widespread government corruption. Specifically, it accused him of obstructing corruption investigations and installing allies as directors of state companies who were subsequently accused of embezzlement. The report’s authors argued that these alleged offences justify Lasso’s impeachment based on constitutional articles allowing the removal of presidents for “crimes against the security of the state” and “crimes of extortion, bribery, embezzlement, or illicit enrichment”.
The vote to approve the report underlined the near-total disintegration of Lasso’s weak legislative alliance. The centre-left Izquierda Democrática (ID), a fair-weather ally that propped up the government in the last impeachment vote in June 2022 [WR-22-26], voted by 13-3 to approve the report. The conservative Partido Social Cristiano (PSC), which also supported Lasso in the previous impeachment attempt, likewise voted overwhelmingly to approve the report. As expected, the indigenous Pachakutik, an estranged government ally, and the main opposition force, the left-wing Unión por la Esperanza (Unes) coalition, also voted almost unanimously in favour, leaving Lasso with just a handful of votes from his centre-right Movimiento Creo (MC) and a cluster of small parties and independents.
The odds are now clearly stacked against the government if the opposition successfully launches impeachment proceedings. Removing Lasso from office would require the support of 92 legislators – 12 fewer than the number who approved the report recommending impeachment. With Unes reportedly already preparing an impeachment motion, the government will be considering its options. The best-case scenario for Lasso would be for the constitutional court to reject an impeachment attempt before it can proceed to a political trial. The court’s approval for the impeachment attempt is mandatory, and the opposition may struggle to convince it that Lasso is guilty of corruption or threatening state security ‘by omission’. Heading off the impeachment attempt in the courtroom presents by far the best chance for Lasso to remain in office.
Alternatively, Lasso may be considering invoking the ‘muerte cruzada’ – a constitutional tool enabling the president to convene a snap general election in the event of “severe political crisis and domestic unrest”. This would be an enormously risky move for Lasso, whose popularity has plummeted since he took office in May 2021. The threat of early elections will nevertheless rattle some nerves in the national assembly, potentially persuading some legislators to drop their support for impeachment proceedings.
OAS concerns
On 5 March the general secretariat of the Organization of American States (OAS) issued a statement on the political situation in Ecuador, underlining “the absolute importance of adherence to democratic institutions and respect for the stability of constitutional periods”. It called on political actors in Ecuador to resolve their differences “within the constitutional context”.