* The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a new statement following the conclusion of an Article IV visit to Guatemala, in which it found that Guatemala’s economy
“continued to show resilience in 2022, with growth exceeding its potential”. The IMF delegation, headed by
Maria Oliva, visited Guatemala City from 28 February to 13 March. In its statement, the IMF said that macroeconomic and financial stability had been preserved last year despite an unfavourable global context, with
“large remittance inflows and vibrant bank credit to the private sector… play[ing] an important role in sustaining solid private consumption”. The statement highlighted the strong economic rebound that Guatemala underwent in 2021, particularly the recovery of the labour market to levels above those seen prior to the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, and concluded that although growth is expected to slow to 3.4% in 2023 (down from 4% in 2022), GDP growth is then expected to accelerate slightly year-on-year through to 2028. However, the statement also highlighted the risks of the country’s reliance on large remittance inflows, with Guatemala’s dependence on the US economy making it vulnerable to a US economic slowdown, and warned that a decline in remittances would have “
material effects on the most vulnerable”.
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