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Weekly Report - 27 April 2004

Tracking trends

COLOMBIA | Growth outlook. The IMF estimates that the Colombian economy will grow this year by 4%, up from last year's 3.7%. This matches the government's forecasts, though finance minister Alberto Carrasquilla is treating this as a minimum. The Fund had earlier forecast 3.6% growth for Colombia this year.

COLOMBIA | Defence spending. Defence spending in Colombia last year grew by 8.4%, as overall spending by the executive branch contracted by 7.7%. Much of the defence outlay was taken up by spending on personnel, which increased by 6%. Preliminary figures show defence spending accounting for 73.6% of all executive outlays in January-October.

PERU | Growth outlook. The IMF predicts 4% GDP growth for Peru this year, rising to 4.5% in 2005. President Alejandro Toledo insists that growth this year will be somewhere between 4.5% and 5.5%.

PERU | Gold output on the rise. Peru's gold production last year reached 172 tonnes, or 9.5% more than in 2002, according to the Sociedad Nacional de Minerí­a (SNM). This allowed Peru to overtake Indonesia as the world's sixth-biggest gold producer (after South Africa, the US, Australia, China and Russia).

ECUADOR | Trying again with the IMF. The government of Ecuador is sending a delegation to Washington this week to open negotiations on a new standby agreement. The previous one, of US$205m for one year, expired last month with only US$48 disbursed, due to Ecuador's failure to meet the agreed fiscal targets and introduce agreed legislation.

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