On 14 December Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro and Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali met amid high tensions over the disputed Essequibo region, and signed an agreement saying that neither country will use force against the other.
Analysis:
Tensions, which have flared up following the 3 December referendum in Venezuela in which voters expressed support for annexing the Essequibo region, are likely to ease somewhat following the meeting, which saw Maduro and Ali agree not to use force or threaten each other. This was about as positive an outcome as could have been hoped for from the meeting, which was never expected to result in either country offering a concession to the other. The dispute instead looks set to rumble on, particularly given Venezuela’s objections to resolving it in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague. Nevertheless, the risk of direct military conflict, whilst always viewed as a slim possibility, has been reduced, with protocols established to prevent any “incidents on the ground” from flaring into bigger conflicts.
- The emergency summit in St Vincent & the Grenadines produced an agreement in which Maduro and Ali “agreed that Guyana and Venezuela, directly or indirectly, will not threaten or use force against one another in any circumstances, including those consequential to any existing controversies between the two States”. They also agreed to “refrain, whether by words or deeds, from escalating any conflict” and “committed to the pursuance of good neighbourliness, peaceful coexistence, and the unity of Latin America and the Caribbean”.
- But while the agreement will ease fears of military conflict, it does not provide a route to the resolution of the Essequibo dispute. The agreement notes Guyana’s commitment to resolving the issue in the ICJ, but also notes Venezuela’s “lack of recognition of the International Court of Justice and its jurisdiction in the border controversy”.
- Ali and Maduro also agreed to work to avoid “incidents on the ground” that could raise tensions. If such an incident takes place, the agreement establishes protocols to prevent it from escalating dangerously, establishing the Caribbean Community (Caricom), the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (Celac), and the Brazilian government as mediators for immediate communication between Venezuela and Guyana to “contain, reverse and prevent its recurrence”.
- Upon his return to Venezuela, Maduro said that he appreciated Ali’s “frankness” during the meeting, which he described as “fruitful” but “at times, tense”. He said that “I felt very satisfied to be able to talk face-to-face with the president of Guyana, as I have wanted to do for a long time”.
- Ali did not make any public comments after the talks. However, his government issued a statement shortly before he met Maduro stating that Guyanese sovereignty over the Essequibo “is not up for discussion, negotiation, or deliberation”. He reiterated this during a break in the talks, holding up a bracelet featuring Guyana’s outline and saying that “no narrative propaganda [or] decree can change” the fact that “all of this belongs to Guyana”.
- Ali said on 11 December that the dispute is not impacting the development of Guyana’s massive oilfields, which are located in the Essequibo region. Ali said that oil companies are “moving ahead aggressively” with their production plans despite the tensions with Venezuela, and said that the Guyanese military was prepared to defend the Essequibo against any Venezuelan incursion.
Looking Ahead: Venezuela and Guyana agreed to maintain a line of communication “to continue dialogue on any other pending matters of mutual importance to the two countries”.
