Latin American Weekly Report

Weekly Report - 23 March 2023 (WR-23-12)

Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro is unveiling flagship pieces of legislation at a rapid rate, presenting his government’s much-awaited labour reform bill on 17 March and his pension reform bill just five days later.

Weekly Report - 16 March 2023 (WR-23-11)

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LEADER
- Honduras switches allegiance to China
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- BOLIVIA: On the brink of a currency crisis?
- COLOMBIA: One step forward, one step back for peace plans
- ECUADOR: Broad alliance unites around impeachment efforts
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- CHILE: Boric faces new setback
- ARGENTINA: Inflation breaks psychological threshold
- BRAZIL: Demarcation of indigenous lands: a big issue for Lula
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: López Obrador shields foreign critics
- MEXICO: Mass turnout for International Women’s Day marches
- MEXICO: Working to patch up US-Mexico relations
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- NICARAGUA: Church ties hit nadir
- EL SALVADOR: Bukele gears up for 2024
POSTSCRIPT
- Ambassadors expelled as Ecuador-Argentina row erupts
- Quotes of the week

Another brick in Taiwan’s crumbling diplomatic edifice in Central America will shortly be removed after Honduran President Xiomara Castro announced on 14 March that she had had instructed her foreign minister, Eduardo Enrique Reina, to commence negotiations to open diplomatic relations with mainland China.

Weekly Report - 09 March 2023 (WR-23-10)

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LEADER
- Ortega accused of crimes against humanity
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- ECUADOR: Lasso’s weakness exposed as impeachment grows more likely
- COLOMBIA: Petro’s son under scrutiny over drug links
- VENEZUELA: Government to help – or hinder – opposition primaries
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- BRAZIL: Diamonds are forever
- BRAZIL: Lula unmoved by corruption allegations
- ARGENTINA: Send in the army – really?
- CHILE: Constitutional fatigue setting in?
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Trying times for US-Mexico relations
- MEXICO: Tensions with supreme court intensify
- MEXICO: Militarisation of public security fuels controversy
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- HAITI: Caricom special mission to Haiti ducks key request
POSTSCRIPT
- Lula sticks to his (neutral) foreign policy guns
- Quotes of the week

An expert panel appointed by the United Nations (UN) has concluded that the Nicaraguan government led by President Daniel Ortega has committed “widespread human rights violations that amount to crimes against humanity”.

Weekly Report - 02 March 2023 (WR-23-09)

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LEADER
- Mexican protesters fill Zócalo in defence of democracy
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- ECUADOR: Lasso faces renewed threat of impeachment
- COLOMBIA: Petro takes big gamble by firing Gaviria
- TRACKING TRENDS
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- BRAZIL: Business re-assessing Fernando Haddad?
- ARGENTINA: Unhappy coalitions
- CHILE: Army sent in to deal with migrants
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- GUATEMALA: Questionable candidacies cast doubt on electoral process
- PANAMA: Parlous situation facing migrants
- CUBA: Blackouts intensify amid other economic woes
POSTSCRIPT
- Santokhi talks get underway in Suriname
- Quotes of the week

Mexico’s Zócalo was bathed in pink on 26 February as a huge crowd of protesters gathered in the central square in Mexico City (CDMX) to protest against the election reform initiative pushed through congress days earlier by the government led by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

Weekly Report - 23 February 2023 (WR-23-08)

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LEADER
- Protesters invade Suriname’s parliament and loot businesses
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- COLOMBIA: New bill to demobilise criminal groups
- PERU: Boluarte battles to salvage government’s image
- VENEZUELA: Crackdown on illegal gold mining
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- BRAZIL: Government faces fake news conundrum
- BRAZIL: Franco investigation reopened
- BRAZIL: Ringing the changes in the army
- TRACKING TRENDS
- ARGENTINA: Government coalition still in disarray
- CHILE: Friction emerges in Argentine ties
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Guilty García Luna
- MEXICO: Moving on lithium
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: High-profile trial begins
- HONDURAS: Congress ends speculation over new supreme court
POSTSCRIPT
- Pacific Alliance divided over Peru crisis
- Quotes of the week

Several hundred protesters burst into the national assembly building in Paramaribo on 17 February, and subsequently went on a looting spree on the streets of the Surinamese capital.

Weekly Report - 16 February 2023 (WR-23-07)

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LEADER
- Health reform to put Petro’s alliance to the test
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- PERU: Boluarte and Fujimori discuss crisis
- ECUADOR: Minister toppled as corruption allegations pile up
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- ARGENTINA: Rossi appointed to hold ruling coalition together
- BRAZIL: Future conflict over Amazon oil?
- BRAZIL: Lula conducts diplomatic re-set
- CHILE: Logging industry agrees to talks
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Cuba and Mexico boost ties
- MEXICO: Final witnesses testify in key trial
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- NICARAGUA: Surprise mass prisoner release raises questions
- HAITI: More efforts to chart path towards elections
- TRACKING TRENDS
POSTSCRIPT
- Venezuelan government and opposition measure support
- Quotes of the week

Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro’s broad legislative alliance, which spans left-wing, centrist, and centre-right parties, is about to face its first real stress test.

Weekly Report - 09 February 2023 (WR-23-06)

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LEADER
- Lasso suffers big defeat as Correismo savours electoral success
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- COLOMBIA: Petro presents ambitious national development plan
- VENEZUELA: Maduro reaches out to evangelicals
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- BRAZIL: The interest rate war
- ARGENTINA: Media frenzy over murder trial
- CHILE: Wildfires rage after a decade of drought
- PARAGUAY: Cartes responds to US sanctions
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Former officials cause stir in García Luna trial
- MEXICO: Judicial independence stressed as SCJN enters new era
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- EL SALVADOR: Impact of gang crackdown acknowledged
- HONDURAS: Castro pledges tax system overhaul
POSTSCRIPT
- Congress fiddles while Peru burns
- Quotes of the week

The left-wing party of Ecuador’s former president Rafael Correa (2007-2017), Revolución Ciudadana (RC), which carries his initials, excelled in provincial and municipal elections staged on 5 February.

Weekly Report - 02 February 2023 (WR-23-05)

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LEADER
- US sanctions Cartes as Paraguay’s elections loom
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- PERU: Boluarte at loggerheads with congress over elections
- ECUADOR: Illegal mining declared ‘threat to national security’
- COLOMBIA: Cocaine busts at record high
- VENEZUELA: OHCHR visits amid fears for NGOs
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- BRAZIL: Lira emerges as the power broker
- BRAZIL: Yanomami genocide probe gets go ahead
- ARGENTINA: Vanity and politics
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Ebrard on a mission
- MEXICO: New opposition collective emerges
- TRACKING TRENDS
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- GUATEMALA: TSE faces familiar criticism as election season officially begins
- HAITI: PM’s residence attacked amid unrest sparked by police killings
POSTSCRIPT
- Scholz visit launches diplomatic comeback
- Quotes of the week

Paraguay’s electoral race took a twist on 26 January when the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (Ofac) sanctioned Paraguay’s former president Horacio Cartes (2013-2018), who was blacklisted by the US Department of State last July for significant corruption.

Weekly Report - 26 January 2023 (WR-23-04)

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LEADER
- Democracy dominates Celac summit in Argentina
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- PERU: Left moves to impeach Boluarte
- BOLIVIA: Protesters issue ultimatum over ‘political prisoners’
- COLOMBIA: ELN talks rescued but Farc dissidents remain a challenge
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- BRAZIL: Lula tightens his grip on security forces
- BRAZIL: Yanomami tragedy causes consternation
- CHILE: Opposition given more ammunition to blast Boric
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Opposition challenges electoral reform
- MEXICO: Testimony begins in García Luna trial
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- NICARAGUA: More fissures at the top?
- HONDURAS: Castro under pressure over environmentalists’ killings
POSTSCRIPT
- Lasso battling corruption scandal
- Quotes of the week

Argentina’s President Alberto Fernández played host to regional leaders for the summit of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (Celac) on 24 January.

Weekly Report - 19 January 2023 (WR-23-03)

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LEADER
- Protesters converge on Lima as Boluarte vows to fight on
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- ECUADOR: Corruption scandal hits close to home for Lasso
- COLOMBIA: Major spat breaks out with Guatemala
- VENEZUELA: Fading hopes for dialogue process
- TRACKING TRENDS
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- BRAZIL: A major crackdown on anti-democratic rioters
- ARGENTINA: Massa delivers ‘low’ inflation
- CHILE: Boric sounds death knell for Dominga mine
MEXICO
- MEXICO: A united opposition?
- MEXICO: Militarisation concerns rise
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- GUATEMALA: Presidential race takes shape
- ANTIGUA & BARBUDA: Browne secures third victory for Labour Party
- EL SALVADOR: Environmentalists’ arrests spark concern
- HAITI: Plunging further into the constitutional abyss
- TRACKING TRENDS
POSTSCRIPT
- Leap in homicides raises questions in Uruguay
- Quotes of the week

After a turbulent six weeks in office, Peru’s President Dina Boluarte’s troubled tenure has reached a critical juncture, with her political survival at stake.

Weekly Report - 12 January 2023 (WR-23-02)

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LEADER
- Brazil’s democratic institutions under attack
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- PERU: Boluarte wins key vote but faces “genocide” probe
- ECUADOR: Lasso’s future on the line
- COLOMBIA: ELN talks in jeopardy
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- CHILE: No smooth flight for Boric
MEXICO
- MEXICO: The three amigos reunite
- MEXICO: El Chapo’s son recaptured
- TRACKING TRENDS
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- CUBA: US embassy resumes services as Cuba migration soars
- HONDURAS: CSJ election in final stages as Cicih takes shape
POSTSCRIPT
- El Salvador homicides fall but at what cost?
- Quotes of the week

Until last week, the power transfer in Brazil seemed to have proceeded smoothly, despite the deep political polarisation in which the country has been immersed.

Weekly Report - 05 January 2023 (WR-23-01)

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LEADER
- Team Lula begins to roll in Brazil
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- COLOMBIA: ELN forces Petro into humiliating climbdown
- BOLIVIA: Camacho’s imprisonment threatens new wave of unrest
- VENEZUELA: Guaidó’s ousting tips opposition into uncertainty
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- PARAGUAY: Peña prevails in party primaries
- CHILE: Is public opinion undergoing a sea-change?
- ARGENTINA: Sporting glory, political tedium
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Mass prison break prompts blame game
- MEXICO: New supreme court president makes history
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- HAITI: Henry claims of ‘historic’ roadmap accord ring hollow
- EL SALVADOR: Contentious pensions reform approved
- PANAMA: Key investment project in doubt
POSTSCRIPT
- Protesters compel congress to bring Peru’s elections forward
- Quotes of the week

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was sworn in as president of Brazil on 1 January, with his record number of 37 cabinet ministers beginning to lay out their policies and priorities.