Latin American Weekly Report

Weekly Report - 15 May 2025 (WR-25-19)

Diplomatic protocol suggests that ministerial-level meetings should, like this month’s China–Celac Forum reunion in Beijing, remain at that level (specifically it was intended for foreign ministers).

Weekly Report - 08 May 2025 (WR-25-18)

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LEADER
- Venezuela embassy rescue embarrasses Maduro
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- PERU: Prime minister faces censure after miner massacre
- BOLIVIA: Judge’s arrest roils judiciary
- ECUADOR: Noboa inches towards majority in congress
- COLOMBIA: Petro summons spirt of Bolívar in congress clash
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- CHILE: Boric receives blueprint for ending Mapuche conflict
- BRAZIL: Lula replaces cabinet ministers with eye on 2026
- BRAZIL: Renewed institutional tensions over coup plot case
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Teuchitlán mayor arrested
- MEXICO: Judicial elections hit more speedbumps
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- NICARAGUA: Regime pulls out of Unesco over press award
- COSTA RICA: Opposition criticises Chaves for “authoritarian populism”
POSTSCRIPT
- Bullrich defects to Milei’s party amid Argentine electoral race
- Quotes of the week

One moment five Venezuelan opposition leaders were in the residence of the Argentine embassy in Caracas, where they had been confined for the previous 15 months.

Weekly Report - 01 May 2025 (WR-25-17)

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LEADER
- Moderate left unites in Chile against right – and radical left
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- PERU: Gold boom comes with a cost
- BOLIVIA: Morales gets a boost in legal battle
- COLOMBIA: A new ‘plan pistola’
- VENEZUELA: Gearing up for more elections
- ECUADOR: Lessons from El Salvador
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- ARGENTINA: Georgieva incenses Peronists
- BRAZIL: Minister under pressure from INSS corruption scandal
- BRAZIL: Lava Jato leads to another former president’s arrest
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: US agricultural disputes averted
- MEXICO: Telecoms bill sparks censorship concerns
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- PANAMA: Practicing the art of standing up to the US “discreetly”
- GUATEMALA: Porras arrests deputy minister
- TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: Opposition UNC claims emphatic victory
POSTSCRIPT
- Abinader under fire over Dominican deportation of Haitians
- Quotes of the week

Chile’s moderate left-wing parties closed ranks behind Carolina Tohá this week ahead of primary elections on 29 June.

Weekly Report - 24 April 2025 (WR-25-16)

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LEADER
- Latin American papacy ends with mixed legacy
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- COLOMBIA: Debate over labour reform referendum
- ECUADOR: Mexico dismisses Noboa assassination claims
- PERU: Former attorney general faces growing legal threat
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- CHILE: No primary elections for right-wing opposition
- CHILE-BRAZIL: Boric and Lula call for closer alignment
- BRAZIL: Short-term relief for leftists in congress
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Tensions flare over migration
- MEXICO: Concerns rise over judicial candidates
- TRACKING TRENDS
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- EL SALVADOR-VENEZUELA: PR battle over prisoner exchange
- HONDURAS: Asfura makes his pitch
- TRACKING TRENDS
POSTSCRIPT
- Martinelli seeks corruption amnesty in Panama
- Quotes of the week

The most influential Latin American on the global stage, Pope Francis, the first non-European pontiff, died on 21 April.

Weekly Report - 17 April 2025 (WR-25-15)

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LEADER
- Noboa crushes González in lopsided run-off
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- BOLIVIA: Government names alleged conspirators in coup plot
- PERU: Boluarte off the hook on Rolexgate
- VENEZUELA: Capriles expelled for “betraying unity”
- COLOMBIA: Yellow fever outbreak triggers emergency measures
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- ARGENTINA: Milei removes the shackles
- CHILE: Vodanovic enters the fray
- BRAZIL: Government losing hold over conservative allies
- BRAZIL: Food inflation rears its head again
- BRAZIL: Activists slam potential rollback of indigenous land rights
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: More US tariff threats as water dispute escalates
- MEXICO: Trouble over tomatoes
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- EL SALVADOR: Bukele deepens ties with Trump
POSTSCRIPT
- Venezuela cosies up to Russia as Guyana signs UK defence accord
- Quotes of the week

Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa has cruised into a second term after an unexpectedly decisive victory over Luisa González in the second round of presidential elections on 13 April.

Weekly Report - 10 April 2025 (WR-25-14)

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LEADER
- Region reacts to Trump tariffs
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- COLOMBIA: US reacts to Petro policy proposals
- ECUADOR: Dead heat as campaigns close
- VENEZUELA: Economic emergency – again
- PERU: Extortion on wheels
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- ARGENTINA: Senate strikes down Milei’s supreme court picks
- BRAZIL: Potential Bolsonaro successors seek closer ties
- BRAZIL: Resistance against government’s security reform
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: A cool head prevails
- MEXICO: Government under scrutiny over fatal festival accident
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- PANAMA: Dialling down the rhetoric
- TRACKING TRENDS
POSTSCRIPT
- Trinidad and Tobago gears up for elections
- Quotes of the week

On 2 April, dubbed “Liberation Day” by US President Donald Trump, the Washington administration set out the biggest and most abrupt pivot away from free trade seen in the last century.

Weekly Report - 03 April 2025 (WR-25-13)

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LEADER
- González gains key support ahead of second round showdown
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- VENEZUELA: May elections: more PR than substance
- BOLIVIA: Morales launches new party as MAS moves on
- COLOMBIA: Lehder makes unexpected return
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- CHILE: Boric creates new ministry to tackle insecurity
- BRAZIL: Bolsonarismo struggles to win over centre-right allies
- BRAZIL-PARAGUAY: Brazil’s intelligence agency hit by another scandal
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Sheinbaum ducks more tariffs
- MEXICO: Blanco immunity vote causes stir
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- HAITI: Armed gangs spread beyond capital
- DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Growing tension with Haiti
- EL SALVADOR: Getting close to Trump
POSTSCRIPT
- Argentina receives boost from Bretton Woods twins
- Quotes of the week

Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa suffered a setback in his bid to win re-election on 13 April when his rival Luisa González received the endorsement of Pachakutik (PK) during an event at the weekend in return for incorporating some of the indigenous movement’s main priorities in her plan of governance.

Weekly Report - 27 March 2025 (WR-25-12)

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LEADER
- US threatens 25% tariffs on buyers of Venezuelan crude
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- PERU: Congress strikes down key Boluarte ally
- ECUADOR: Feisty debate fails to produce a winner
- COLOMBIA: Petro appoints ally as finance minister
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- ARGENTINA: Milei accused of historical revisionism
- CHILE: Pension reform signing acquires electoral dimension
- BRAZIL: Top court greenlights trial for Bolsonaro
- BRAZIL: Lula shores up Japan relations
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Progress in ranch investigation marred
- MEXICO: Teachers challenge Sheinbaum
- TRACKING TRENDS
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- HONDURAS: Army and CNE clash over electoral fiasco
- PANAMA: Chinese rumblings over sale of ports
POSTSCRIPT
- Suriname gears up for elections
- Quotes of the week

The complex story of US economic sanctions against Venezuela took a new turn this week, with Washington both extending a waiver that allows the US energy giant Chevron to continue oil production in the country for another month, while at the same time announcing the imposition of new punitive measures against countries that buy Venezuelan oil, in the shape of a new 25% import tariff.

Weekly Report - 20 March 2025 (WR-25-11)

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LEADER
- Going gets tougher for Milei
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- COLOMBIA: Petro defiant as finance minister walks out
- PERU: Lima under emergency measures amid crime fears
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- CHILE: Opposition turns up the heat
- BRAZIL: Bolsonaro holds lacklustre rally
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: New measures target disappearances
- MEXICO: Can praise prevent punishment?
- TRACKING TRENDS
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- EL SALVADOR-REGION: Tren de Aragua flights spark crisis
- BELIZE: Ruling PUP sweeps to victory
- GUATEMALA: Outrage as prominent journalist returned to prison
- TRACKING TRENDS
POSTSCRIPT
- Bolivian fuel shortages bite again
- Quotes of the week

Weekly Report - 13 March 2025 (WR-25-10)

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LEADER
- Petro plans referendum on key reforms
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- VENEZUELA: Maduro hits back at Chevron withdrawal order
- ECUADOR: Noboa calls in private security
- PERU: Castillo on hunger strike as trial begins
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- ARGENTINA: Milei squares up for new battle in congress
- CHILE: Boric anniversary marred by resignations
- BRAZIL: Government hails rise in GDP growth
- BRAZIL: Opposition governor jumps ship
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Sheinbaum basks in adulation – for now
- MEXICO: Macabre discovery puts pressure on Sheinbaum
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- HONDURAS: Ballot papers go AWOL
- PANAMA: Unions call strike over pension reform
- TRACKING TRENDS
POSTSCRIPT
- Ramdin becomes first Caribbean OAS chief
- Quotes of the week

Faced yet again with the failure of his labour reform bill to get through congress, Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro announced on 11 March that he would instead put the legislation, as well as a divisive health reform bill, to the people in a national referendum.

Weekly Report - 06 March 2025 (WR-25-09)

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LEADER
- Sheinbaum secures new delay to Trump tariffs
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- COLOMBIA: Vice president sidelined in reshuffle
- VENEZUELA-GUYANA: Tensions rise as Venezuela harasses oil rigs
- ECUADOR: Pushback over oil deal
- TRACKING TRENDS
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- URUGUAY-ARGENTINA: Orsi investiture marred by Milei absence
- BRAZIL: Lula’s gestures to the left
- BRAZIL: Disappointing results for Petrobras
- CHILE: Tohá throws hat into the ring
- TRACKING TRENDS
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- PANAMA: BlackRock deal impacts the canal
- EL SALVADOR: Bukele’s crypto romance not yet over
- TRACKING TRENDS
POSTSCRIPT
- Mexico moves on anti-nepotism law - slowly
- Quotes of the week

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum is keeping her head amid intemperate outbursts that accompanied the unilateral imposition of a blanket 25% tariff on Mexican products by the US government of President Donald Trump this week.

Weekly Report - 27 February 2025 (WR-25-08)

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LEADER
- Benedetti’s unstoppable rise continues in Colombia
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- VENEZUELA: Maduro and Trump square off over crime train
- BOLIVIA: Morales leaves the MAS
- ECUADOR: A violent start to the year
- PERU: Boluarte entangled in new scandal
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- ARGENTINA: Milei moves to cement ties with US
- PARAGUAY: Top brass embroiled in corruption scandal
- BRAZIL: Lula takes action as popularity slides
- CHILE: Massive blackout causes concern
MEXICO
- MEXICO: ‘El Mayo’ seeks return
- MEXICO: Judicial elections advance amid controversy
- MEXICO: Ban on planting GM wheat wins congressional backing
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- CUBA-REGION: Hegseth visits Gitmo
- HAITI: Gangs launch new offensive
POSTSCRIPT
- UN report savages Nicaraguan regime
- Quotes of the week

The ironclad support of Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro for his ally Armando Benedetti, who was appointed as interior minister on 25 February, continues to be the subject of intense speculation.

Weekly Report - 20 February 2025 (WR-25-07)

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LEADER
- Brazil’s top prosecutor files charges against Bolsonaro
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- COLOMBIA: Petro places defence ministry under military control
- ECUADOR: Rattled Noboa reshuffles his cabinet
- VENEZUELA: Maduro sets out constitutional reform package
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- ARGENTINA: Milei embroiled in crypto scandal
- PARAGUAY: Congress dismisses disgraced deputy
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Yunes causes friction in Morena
- MEXICO: Government moves on housing reform
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: Army ammunition goes missing as violent crime soars
- COSTA RICA: Worries over crime
- HONDURAS: Castro performs a U-turn
- PANAMA: Suntracs leads pension protests
POSTSCRIPT
- Bukele uses sweeping new powers to reform constitution
- Quotes of the week

Since November, Brazil’s attorney general Paulo Gonet has had a police report on file which recommended pressing criminal charges against former president Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2023) for alleged involvement in a plot to launch a miliary coup in 2022 [WR-24-47].

Weekly Report - 13 February 2025 (WR-25-06)

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LEADER
- Noboa to face González in run-off after photo finish
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- COLOMBIA: Petro loses top ministers as cabinet row deepens
- VENEZUELA: Deportation flights begin
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- PARAGUAY: Corruption scandal rocks system
- BRAZIL: Transparency concerns over congress budgetary grants
- BRAZIL: Semi-presidentialism debate reignited
- ARGENTINA: Election suspension a boon for Milei
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Sheinbaum responds to more US tariffs
- MEXICO: CDMX shooting raises concerns
- TRACKING TRENDS
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- REGION: Is an inverse migrant flow possible?
- EL SALVADOR: Bukele bashes USAID
POSTSCRIPT
- Former lawmaker assassinated in Peru
- Quotes of the week

Ecuador’s presidential elections will go to a second round on 13 April.

Weekly Report - 06 February 2025 (WR-25-05)

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LEADER
- Rubio visit marks regional reset
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- COLOMBIA: Ministers walk out on Petro after cabinet broadcast
- VENEZUELA: Limited thaw in relations with Washington?
- ECUADOR: Noboa aligns with Trump ahead of elections
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- ARGENTINA: Milei to pull out of WHO
- BRAZIL: Moderate conservatives win congress leadership race
- CHILE-VENEZUELA: Diplomatic rift deepens
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Sheinbaum buoyant as US suspends tariffs
POSTSCRIPT
- Boluarte conducts mini reshuffle amid corruption claims
- Quotes of the week

Mulino, who described the meeting with Rubio as “respectful and cordial” and said it should help “to increase as much as possible US investments in Panama”, insisted that Panama’s sovereignty over the Canal is not in question.

Weekly Report - 30 January 2025 (WR-25-04)

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LEADER
- Petro incurs Trump’s wrath
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- VENEZUELA: More elections, less credibility
- ECUADOR: Noboa closes in on re-election
- TRACKING TRENDS
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- CHILE: Pension breakthrough for Boric
- ARGENTINA: Milei blasts “woke ideology” at Davos
- BRAZIL: Lula’s disapproval surpasses approval rating
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Sinaloa reaches breaking point
- MEXICO: Sheinbaum guns for GM corn ban
- TRACKING TRENDS
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- EL SALVADOR: Bukele positioned on Trump’s migration good side
- PANAMA: Mulino defends ownership of the Canal
- TRACKING TRENDS
POSTSCRIPT
- Morales allies prepare to form new party in Bolivia
- Quotes of the week

Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro has come away with a bloody nose after he attempted to push back against US President Donald Trump’s forceful early moves on migration.

Weekly Report - 23 January 2025 (WR-25-03)

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LEADER
- Petro declares war on the ELN
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- VENEZUELA: Seeking a Trump 2.0 deal?
- ECUADOR: Noboa weathers criticism in scrappy debate
- PERU: Explosion at the prosecutor’s office
- TRACKING TRENDS
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- CHILE: Matthei makes bold bid to unite right
- ARGENTINA: Milei gets surplus boost
- BRAZIL: Rocky road ahead for new COP30 president
- BRAZIL: Lula tells cabinet 2026 elections have begun
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Sheinbaum responds as Trump gets down to work
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- PANAMA: Mulino sets out defence of Canal
- TRACKING TRENDS
POSTSCRIPT
- Bukele not bullet-proof
- Quotes of the week

The troubled peace process between Colombia’s government and the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN) guerrilla group moved closer to total collapse on 16 January when the ELN launched a major offensive in the north-eastern department of Norte de Santander.

Weekly Report - 16 January 2025 (WR-25-02)

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LEADER
- Maduro’s inauguration leaves opposition facing bleak future
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- ECUADOR: Noboa curtails leave of absence
- BOLIVIA: Morales skips court date as supporters rally
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- ARGENTINA: Buoyed by economy, Milei eyes political challenges
- BRAZIL: Inflation concerns weigh on government
- CHILE: Boric ups subsidies, agrees pension compromise
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Sheinbaum celebrates first major milestone
- MEXICO: Plan México seeks to please Trump, private sector
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- CUBA: Thaw before the big freeze?
- HAITI: Barbados backs out as crisis deepens
POSTSCRIPT
- Fujimori wins reprieve in money laundering trial
- Quotes of the week

Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro was sworn in for a third six-year term on 10 January.

Weekly Report - 09 January 2025 (WR-25-01)

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LEADER
- Venezuela’s election dispute reaches endgame
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- ECUADOR: Vice president replaced as campaign period begins
- COLOMBIA-PARAGUAY: Prison murder upsets criminal investigations
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- ARGENTINA: Milei’s chainsaw still revving in second year
- CHILE: Boric’s Antarctic trip eclipsed by botched Allende deal
- BRAZIL: Notable absentees at capital riots anniversary
- BRAZIL: Opportunities at the helm of Brics
MEXICO
- MEXICO: State airline in trouble
- MEXICO: Escalating violence in Tabasco
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- EL SALVADOR: Congress repeals mining ban
- SURINAME: Bouterse’s death could influence elections
- HONDURAS: Former coup leader arrested
- GUATEMALA: Arévalo lifts minimum wage
- TRACKING TRENDS
POSTSCRIPT
- Murillo gives firm response to Trump over Panama Canal
- Quotes of the week

Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro seems all but certain to be sworn in for a third term on 10 January despite a final push by the political opposition to try and encourage a military rebellion against his leadership.