Latin American Weekly Report

Weekly Report - 25 May 2023 (WR-23-21)

Ecuador’s President Guillermo Lasso delivered his second annual state-of-the-nation address on 24 May, which marked what should have been the halfway point of his four-year term in office.

Weekly Report - 18 May 2023 (WR-23-20)

Click here for full report

LEADER
- Lasso disbands congress to avert impeachment
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- COLOMBIA: Petro loses another pillar of legislative alliance
- BOLIVIA: Environment minister arrested
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- ARGENTINA: Peronism prevails in provinces
- BRAZIL: Bolsonaro’s inner circle under pressure
- BRAZIL: Supreme court to probe tech giants
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: US Republican comments spark backlash
- TRACKING TRENDS
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- EL SALVADOR: Bukele rages as “zero murder” record tarnished
- HAITI-REGION: UN’s Guterres in Jamaica, urges action on Haiti
- GUATEMALA: Major blow to press freedom
POSTSCRIPT
- Morena’s ‘corcholatas’ primed in Mexico
- Quotes of the week

Ecuador was plunged into political uncertainty on 17 May when President Guillermo Lasso dissolved the national assembly to avoid impending impeachment.

Weekly Report - 11 May 2023 (WR-23-19)

Click here for full report

LEADER
- Boric suffers serious setback as far right sweeps elections
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- ECUADOR: Lasso prepares for final battle with congress
- VENEZUELA: Guaidó’s party drops him as presidential candidate
- COLOMBIA: Petro locks horns with attorney general
- TRACKING TRENDS
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- URUGUAY: Housing scandal fuels coalition tensions
- ARGENTINA: Supreme court puts two provincial elections on hold
- BRAZIL: Government ally to serve on central bank board
- BRAZIL: Lula appeases European allies
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: The end of Title 42?
- MEXICO: Executive and judiciary clash over electoral reform
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- COSTA RICA: Chaves presents one-year balance sheet
- NICARAGUA: A new wave of opposition arrests
- TRACKING TRENDS
POSTSCRIPT
- Cubas arrested amid Paraguayan electoral protests
- Quotes of the week

It is no exaggeration to say that the outcome of the elections held in Chile on 7 May could not have been any worse for President Gabriel Boric.

Weekly Report - 04 May 2023 (WR-23-18)

Click here for full report

LEADER
- Ruling Colorados sweep to total victory in Paraguay
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- COLOMBIA: Petro puts supporters on standby to pressure congress
- VENEZUELA: US drops protection for Citgo parent company
- TRACKING TRENDS
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- ARGENTINA-BRAZIL: Fernández turns to Lula seeking respite
- BRAZIL: Six indigenous territories gain legal protection
- BRAZIL: Resistance to online regulation efforts
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Flurry of activity as congressional session ends
- MEXICO: The fight for CDMX
- TRACKING TRENDS
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- HONDURAS: Castro loses minister over tax reform
- SURINAME: Clashes over land rights claim two lives
- PANAMA: Mixed messages on financial transparency
- TRACKING TRENDS
POSTSCRIPT
- Giammattei reaffirms Guatemala’s support for Taiwan
- Quotes of the week

Paraguay’s elections on 30 April could scarcely have gone any better for the ruling Asociación Nacional Republicana-Partido Colorado (ANR-PC).

Weekly Report - 27 April 2023 (WR-23-17)

Click here for full report

LEADER
- Petro scraps ruling alliance and jettisons seven ministers
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- VENEZUELA-COLOMBIA: Guaidó facing uncertain future after expulsion from Colombia
- PERU: Another head of state falls from grace
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- ARGENTINA: Teetering on the brink
- CHILE: White gold, maybe
- BRAZIL: Select committee sets stage for more culture wars
- BRAZIL: Police clamp down on illegal gold suppliers
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: SCJN issues another national guard ruling
- MEXICO: Migration chief charged over fire
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- CUBA: Díaz-Canel braces for another term
- COSTA RICA: Chaves moves on insecurity
POSTSCRIPT
- Bolivian bank executives arrested amid financial jitters
- Quotes of the week

Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro has taken a political gamble that could shape the rest of his presidency.

Weekly Report - 20 April 2023 (WR-23-16)

Click here for full report

LEADER
- Free market dollar soars again in Argentina, causing political tremors
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- BOLIVIA: Struggling to steady the ship
- PERU: Focal point of protests shifts
- COLOMBIA: Former paramilitaries weigh in on peace plan
- ECUADOR: Lasso threatens to dissolve legislature
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- BRAZIL: Lula faces pushback over Ukraine
- CHILE: Activists protest over Los Bronces
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Supreme court delivers blows to López Obrador
- MEXICO: US indictments strain relations
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- EL SALVADOR: Bukele’s security plan in the spotlight
- NICARAGUA: Relations with Beijing bear fruit
POSTSCRIPT
- UN announces new envoy to Haiti
- Quotes of the week

The price of the free market or ‘blue’ dollar soared again this week, a de facto indicator of sharply falling business and political confidence in Argentina.

Weekly Report - 13 April 2023 (WR-23-15)

Click here for full report

LEADER
- Challenges loom as Brazil’s Lula marks first 100 days in office
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- VENEZUELA/GUYANA: Opposition seeks leverage in Essequibo dispute
- COLOMBIA: Mining protests paused
- ECUADOR: Petroecuador reaches agreement with indigenous protesters
- PERU: Ex-president Toledo battles extradition from US
- TRACKING TRENDS
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- ARGENTINA: Political blow-up over Buenos Aires voting system
- CHILE: Boric announces massive increase in police budget
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Electoral tribunal in the crosshairs
- MEXICO: Top migration officials targeted over deadly fire
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- HONDURAS: Ramping up mano dura
- NICARAGUA: Religious persecution intensifies over Holy Week
POSTSCRIPT
- Corruption purge gathers pace in Venezuela
- Quotes of the week

“Brazil is back,” President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said during an event marking the first 100 days of his current administration on 10 April.

Weekly Report - 06 April 2023 (WR-23-14)

Click here for full report

LEADER
- Peru’s congress spares Boluarte on grounds of preserving stability
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- ECUADOR: Lasso relaxes gun controls
- COLOMBIA: Last chance for an ELN peace deal?
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- BRAZIL: Haddad seeks fiscal deal
- ARGENTINA: Risks of violence highlighted by La Matanza incident
- PARAGUAY: Peña gets boost but wrestles with Colorado divisions
- CHILE: Security law divides ruling coalition
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Controversy over new INE president
- MEXICO: Iberdrola overcome?
- TRACKING TRENDS
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- GUATEMALA: Campaigns kick off
- GUATEMALA-BELIZE: Reaffirming ties to Taipei
POSTSCRIPT
- IACHR issues warning over Bolivian polarisation
- Quotes of the week

Peru has had six presidents in the last five years.

Weekly Report - 30 March 2023 (WR-23-13)

Click here for full report

LEADER
- Top court ruling paves way for Lasso impeachment
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- PERU: Boluarte faces new probe into campaign financing
- COLOMBIA: Coca growers face oversupply crisis
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- ARGENTINA: Finance and debt worries persist
- PARAGUAY: Will corruption influence voters?
- BRAZIL: Lula postpones China visit; reset remains on the cards
- CHILE: Good guys or bad guys?
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Blow for electoral reform
- MEXICO: Deadly fire raises scrutiny on migration policy
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- HONDURAS: Relations with Beijing formalised
- CUBA: Government battles abstention in electoral test
POSTSCRIPT
- Petro’s reform agenda encounters difficulties
- Quotes of the week

President Guillermo Lasso’s prospects of survival are hanging by a thread after Ecuador’s constitutional court (CC) ruled on 29 March that the national assembly could proceed with an impeachment trial against him.

Weekly Report - 23 March 2023 (WR-23-12)

Click here for full report

LEADER
- Petro marches on with labour and pension reforms
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- VENEZUELA: Oil minister removed in purge
- BOLIVIA: Arce and Morales clash
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- CHILE: Not all bad for Boric
- BRAZIL: Abin accused of illegal electronic surveillance
- BRAZIL: Poll offers Lula some encouragement
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Polarisation overshadows commemorative event
- MEXICO: Human rights criticisms cause a stir
- TRACKING TRENDS
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- GUATEMALA: Presidential candidate targeted in crackdown
- DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: PLD heavyweights arrested in major crackdown
- PANAMA: Breakthrough in stand-off over major mine
- TRACKING TRENDS
POSTSCRIPT
- Chinese jet fighters back in the news in Argentina
- Quotes of the week

Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro is unveiling flagship pieces of legislation at a rapid rate, presenting his government’s much-awaited labour reform bill on 17 March and his pension reform bill just five days later.

Weekly Report - 16 March 2023 (WR-23-11)

Click here for full report

LEADER
- Honduras switches allegiance to China
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- BOLIVIA: On the brink of a currency crisis?
- COLOMBIA: One step forward, one step back for peace plans
- ECUADOR: Broad alliance unites around impeachment efforts
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- CHILE: Boric faces new setback
- ARGENTINA: Inflation breaks psychological threshold
- BRAZIL: Demarcation of indigenous lands: a big issue for Lula
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: López Obrador shields foreign critics
- MEXICO: Mass turnout for International Women’s Day marches
- MEXICO: Working to patch up US-Mexico relations
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- NICARAGUA: Church ties hit nadir
- EL SALVADOR: Bukele gears up for 2024
POSTSCRIPT
- Ambassadors expelled as Ecuador-Argentina row erupts
- Quotes of the week

Another brick in Taiwan’s crumbling diplomatic edifice in Central America will shortly be removed after Honduran President Xiomara Castro announced on 14 March that she had had instructed her foreign minister, Eduardo Enrique Reina, to commence negotiations to open diplomatic relations with mainland China.

Weekly Report - 09 March 2023 (WR-23-10)

Click here for full report

LEADER
- Ortega accused of crimes against humanity
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- ECUADOR: Lasso’s weakness exposed as impeachment grows more likely
- COLOMBIA: Petro’s son under scrutiny over drug links
- VENEZUELA: Government to help – or hinder – opposition primaries
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- BRAZIL: Diamonds are forever
- BRAZIL: Lula unmoved by corruption allegations
- ARGENTINA: Send in the army – really?
- CHILE: Constitutional fatigue setting in?
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Trying times for US-Mexico relations
- MEXICO: Tensions with supreme court intensify
- MEXICO: Militarisation of public security fuels controversy
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- HAITI: Caricom special mission to Haiti ducks key request
POSTSCRIPT
- Lula sticks to his (neutral) foreign policy guns
- Quotes of the week

An expert panel appointed by the United Nations (UN) has concluded that the Nicaraguan government led by President Daniel Ortega has committed “widespread human rights violations that amount to crimes against humanity”.

Weekly Report - 02 March 2023 (WR-23-09)

Click here for full report

LEADER
- Mexican protesters fill Zócalo in defence of democracy
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- ECUADOR: Lasso faces renewed threat of impeachment
- COLOMBIA: Petro takes big gamble by firing Gaviria
- TRACKING TRENDS
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- BRAZIL: Business re-assessing Fernando Haddad?
- ARGENTINA: Unhappy coalitions
- CHILE: Army sent in to deal with migrants
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- GUATEMALA: Questionable candidacies cast doubt on electoral process
- PANAMA: Parlous situation facing migrants
- CUBA: Blackouts intensify amid other economic woes
POSTSCRIPT
- Santokhi talks get underway in Suriname
- Quotes of the week

Mexico’s Zócalo was bathed in pink on 26 February as a huge crowd of protesters gathered in the central square in Mexico City (CDMX) to protest against the election reform initiative pushed through congress days earlier by the government led by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

Weekly Report - 23 February 2023 (WR-23-08)

Click here for full report

LEADER
- Protesters invade Suriname’s parliament and loot businesses
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- COLOMBIA: New bill to demobilise criminal groups
- PERU: Boluarte battles to salvage government’s image
- VENEZUELA: Crackdown on illegal gold mining
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- BRAZIL: Government faces fake news conundrum
- BRAZIL: Franco investigation reopened
- BRAZIL: Ringing the changes in the army
- TRACKING TRENDS
- ARGENTINA: Government coalition still in disarray
- CHILE: Friction emerges in Argentine ties
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Guilty García Luna
- MEXICO: Moving on lithium
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: High-profile trial begins
- HONDURAS: Congress ends speculation over new supreme court
POSTSCRIPT
- Pacific Alliance divided over Peru crisis
- Quotes of the week

Several hundred protesters burst into the national assembly building in Paramaribo on 17 February, and subsequently went on a looting spree on the streets of the Surinamese capital.

Weekly Report - 16 February 2023 (WR-23-07)

Click here for full report

LEADER
- Health reform to put Petro’s alliance to the test
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- PERU: Boluarte and Fujimori discuss crisis
- ECUADOR: Minister toppled as corruption allegations pile up
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- ARGENTINA: Rossi appointed to hold ruling coalition together
- BRAZIL: Future conflict over Amazon oil?
- BRAZIL: Lula conducts diplomatic re-set
- CHILE: Logging industry agrees to talks
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Cuba and Mexico boost ties
- MEXICO: Final witnesses testify in key trial
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- NICARAGUA: Surprise mass prisoner release raises questions
- HAITI: More efforts to chart path towards elections
- TRACKING TRENDS
POSTSCRIPT
- Venezuelan government and opposition measure support
- Quotes of the week

Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro’s broad legislative alliance, which spans left-wing, centrist, and centre-right parties, is about to face its first real stress test.

Weekly Report - 09 February 2023 (WR-23-06)

Click here for full report

LEADER
- Lasso suffers big defeat as Correismo savours electoral success
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- COLOMBIA: Petro presents ambitious national development plan
- VENEZUELA: Maduro reaches out to evangelicals
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- BRAZIL: The interest rate war
- ARGENTINA: Media frenzy over murder trial
- CHILE: Wildfires rage after a decade of drought
- PARAGUAY: Cartes responds to US sanctions
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Former officials cause stir in García Luna trial
- MEXICO: Judicial independence stressed as SCJN enters new era
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- EL SALVADOR: Impact of gang crackdown acknowledged
- HONDURAS: Castro pledges tax system overhaul
POSTSCRIPT
- Congress fiddles while Peru burns
- Quotes of the week

The left-wing party of Ecuador’s former president Rafael Correa (2007-2017), Revolución Ciudadana (RC), which carries his initials, excelled in provincial and municipal elections staged on 5 February.

Weekly Report - 02 February 2023 (WR-23-05)

Click here for full report

LEADER
- US sanctions Cartes as Paraguay’s elections loom
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- PERU: Boluarte at loggerheads with congress over elections
- ECUADOR: Illegal mining declared ‘threat to national security’
- COLOMBIA: Cocaine busts at record high
- VENEZUELA: OHCHR visits amid fears for NGOs
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- BRAZIL: Lira emerges as the power broker
- BRAZIL: Yanomami genocide probe gets go ahead
- ARGENTINA: Vanity and politics
- TRACKING TRENDS
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Ebrard on a mission
- MEXICO: New opposition collective emerges
- TRACKING TRENDS
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- GUATEMALA: TSE faces familiar criticism as election season officially begins
- HAITI: PM’s residence attacked amid unrest sparked by police killings
POSTSCRIPT
- Scholz visit launches diplomatic comeback
- Quotes of the week

Paraguay’s electoral race took a twist on 26 January when the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (Ofac) sanctioned Paraguay’s former president Horacio Cartes (2013-2018), who was blacklisted by the US Department of State last July for significant corruption.

Weekly Report - 26 January 2023 (WR-23-04)

Click here for full report

LEADER
- Democracy dominates Celac summit in Argentina
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- PERU: Left moves to impeach Boluarte
- BOLIVIA: Protesters issue ultimatum over ‘political prisoners’
- COLOMBIA: ELN talks rescued but Farc dissidents remain a challenge
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- BRAZIL: Lula tightens his grip on security forces
- BRAZIL: Yanomami tragedy causes consternation
- CHILE: Opposition given more ammunition to blast Boric
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Opposition challenges electoral reform
- MEXICO: Testimony begins in García Luna trial
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- NICARAGUA: More fissures at the top?
- HONDURAS: Castro under pressure over environmentalists’ killings
POSTSCRIPT
- Lasso battling corruption scandal
- Quotes of the week

Argentina’s President Alberto Fernández played host to regional leaders for the summit of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (Celac) on 24 January.

Weekly Report - 19 January 2023 (WR-23-03)

Click here for full report

LEADER
- Protesters converge on Lima as Boluarte vows to fight on
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- ECUADOR: Corruption scandal hits close to home for Lasso
- COLOMBIA: Major spat breaks out with Guatemala
- VENEZUELA: Fading hopes for dialogue process
- TRACKING TRENDS
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- BRAZIL: A major crackdown on anti-democratic rioters
- ARGENTINA: Massa delivers ‘low’ inflation
- CHILE: Boric sounds death knell for Dominga mine
MEXICO
- MEXICO: A united opposition?
- MEXICO: Militarisation concerns rise
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- GUATEMALA: Presidential race takes shape
- ANTIGUA & BARBUDA: Browne secures third victory for Labour Party
- EL SALVADOR: Environmentalists’ arrests spark concern
- HAITI: Plunging further into the constitutional abyss
- TRACKING TRENDS
POSTSCRIPT
- Leap in homicides raises questions in Uruguay
- Quotes of the week

After a turbulent six weeks in office, Peru’s President Dina Boluarte’s troubled tenure has reached a critical juncture, with her political survival at stake.

Weekly Report - 12 January 2023 (WR-23-02)

Click here for full report

LEADER
- Brazil’s democratic institutions under attack
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- PERU: Boluarte wins key vote but faces “genocide” probe
- ECUADOR: Lasso’s future on the line
- COLOMBIA: ELN talks in jeopardy
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- CHILE: No smooth flight for Boric
MEXICO
- MEXICO: The three amigos reunite
- MEXICO: El Chapo’s son recaptured
- TRACKING TRENDS
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- CUBA: US embassy resumes services as Cuba migration soars
- HONDURAS: CSJ election in final stages as Cicih takes shape
POSTSCRIPT
- El Salvador homicides fall but at what cost?
- Quotes of the week

Until last week, the power transfer in Brazil seemed to have proceeded smoothly, despite the deep political polarisation in which the country has been immersed.

Weekly Report - 05 January 2023 (WR-23-01)

Click here for full report

LEADER
- Team Lula begins to roll in Brazil
ANDEAN COUNTRIES
- COLOMBIA: ELN forces Petro into humiliating climbdown
- BOLIVIA: Camacho’s imprisonment threatens new wave of unrest
- VENEZUELA: Guaidó’s ousting tips opposition into uncertainty
BRAZIL & SOUTHERN CONE
- PARAGUAY: Peña prevails in party primaries
- CHILE: Is public opinion undergoing a sea-change?
- ARGENTINA: Sporting glory, political tedium
MEXICO
- MEXICO: Mass prison break prompts blame game
- MEXICO: New supreme court president makes history
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
- HAITI: Henry claims of ‘historic’ roadmap accord ring hollow
- EL SALVADOR: Contentious pensions reform approved
- PANAMA: Key investment project in doubt
POSTSCRIPT
- Protesters compel congress to bring Peru’s elections forward
- Quotes of the week

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was sworn in as president of Brazil on 1 January, with his record number of 37 cabinet ministers beginning to lay out their policies and priorities.