REGION-US: How will US elections affect Latin America?
What impact will electoral politics in the US have on Washington's policies towards Latin America? The question was one of several posed by the Inter-American Dialogue (IAD) for its annual regional outlook*, an informal survey of forecasts, data and analysis from members of the Board of Advisors, economists and policy experts covering the Latin American region. What follows is an edited version of the responses.
`Only Mexico & Cuba'
Andrés Rozental, President of the Mexican Council on Foreign Relations, believes that only two countries in the region are likely to be affected: Mexico and Cuba. `As far as Mexico is concerned,' he says, `it would seem likely that the Bush political camp would try to garner as large a portion of the Hispanic vote as possible [...] The White House might timidly support the partial steps that Congress is currently debating, such as the Dream Act or an agricultural worker programme. However, the migration "grand bargain" hoped for at the outset of the Fox/Bush administrations seems to be further away than ever, at least until after next November.' Regarding Cuba, says Rozental, `Florida plays a key role in Bush's re-election strategy, and this explains the recent tightening of the embargo against the island and the active courting of the Cuban-American electorate.'
Trade dominates the scene
Roberto Teixeira da Costa, vice-trustee of the Brazilian Center for International Relations (Cebri), sees the trade issue at the top of the US policy agenda. He looks beyond the elections and predicts, `The probability for more dialogue with Latin America is higher in that area if the Republicans remain in power and if Mr George W Bush is reelected. This does not mean that after 2005, if that occurs, we will have all the demands for countries like Brazil attended. But nevertheless, after the elections the situation may change. In the meantime the US will continue the dialogue for a less embracing FTAA.' In the field of security, says Teixeira, `Colombia, Venezuela and Bolivia, to different degrees, could receive higher attention from the US.'
Consensus breaking down
Eric Farnsworth, vice-president for Washington Operations at the Council of the Americas, comes out somewhere between Rozental and Teixeira. His position: `It's probably safe to say that Latin American and Caribbean issues will not dominate the 2004 campaign. Much will obviously depend on who ends up being the Democratic Party nominee. That said, discussion of at least one issue — trade — will have a direct impact on US policy in the region. Hemispheric trade expansion has been a bipartisan commitment for the past decade, although that consensus may now be breaking down.'
This, he ventures, could have an adverse effect: `To the extent candidates seek votes by calling trade expansion into question in the hemisphere or elsewhere, or refighting the Nafta debate, this will further create the impression that trade expansion is a net negative and should be abandoned, which could delay or even defeat keystone US policy initiatives.'
Tough fight over Cafta
Tony Smith, a member of the Advisor board and a Partner at Schmeltzer, Aptaker & Shepard, sees an impact on the free-trade negotiations with Central America: `Because of the elections Cafta will become very contentious on a number of different fronts -- particularly labor, environment, and textiles and apparel. In addition, the fact that Costa Rica is still negotiating will create another purported problem for ratification in the Congress.' This notwithstanding, he envisages Cafta being approved `after a tough fight'.
On immigration he expects more noise than substance: `There will be a lot of talk by both parties about immigration reform, but don't expect anything to happen. The Democrats will want a lot, the Republicans very little. As both are fighting for the Hispanic vote, neither are likely to take the risk of an actual law. You can't be criticized for what you contend you support, but the devil is in the details and neither party is going to be willing to compromise on a bipartisan bill that can pass.'
*Latin America Forecasts: 2004, published by the IAD's Latin America Advisor service. Available from www.iadialog.org
`Only Mexico & Cuba'
Andrés Rozental, President of the Mexican Council on Foreign Relations, believes that only two countries in the region are likely to be affected: Mexico and Cuba. `As far as Mexico is concerned,' he says, `it would seem likely that the Bush political camp would try to garner as large a portion of the Hispanic vote as possible [...] The White House might timidly support the partial steps that Congress is currently debating, such as the Dream Act or an agricultural worker programme. However, the migration "grand bargain" hoped for at the outset of the Fox/Bush administrations seems to be further away than ever, at least until after next November.' Regarding Cuba, says Rozental, `Florida plays a key role in Bush's re-election strategy, and this explains the recent tightening of the embargo against the island and the active courting of the Cuban-American electorate.'
Trade dominates the scene
Roberto Teixeira da Costa, vice-trustee of the Brazilian Center for International Relations (Cebri), sees the trade issue at the top of the US policy agenda. He looks beyond the elections and predicts, `The probability for more dialogue with Latin America is higher in that area if the Republicans remain in power and if Mr George W Bush is reelected. This does not mean that after 2005, if that occurs, we will have all the demands for countries like Brazil attended. But nevertheless, after the elections the situation may change. In the meantime the US will continue the dialogue for a less embracing FTAA.' In the field of security, says Teixeira, `Colombia, Venezuela and Bolivia, to different degrees, could receive higher attention from the US.'
Consensus breaking down
Eric Farnsworth, vice-president for Washington Operations at the Council of the Americas, comes out somewhere between Rozental and Teixeira. His position: `It's probably safe to say that Latin American and Caribbean issues will not dominate the 2004 campaign. Much will obviously depend on who ends up being the Democratic Party nominee. That said, discussion of at least one issue — trade — will have a direct impact on US policy in the region. Hemispheric trade expansion has been a bipartisan commitment for the past decade, although that consensus may now be breaking down.'
This, he ventures, could have an adverse effect: `To the extent candidates seek votes by calling trade expansion into question in the hemisphere or elsewhere, or refighting the Nafta debate, this will further create the impression that trade expansion is a net negative and should be abandoned, which could delay or even defeat keystone US policy initiatives.'
Tough fight over Cafta
Tony Smith, a member of the Advisor board and a Partner at Schmeltzer, Aptaker & Shepard, sees an impact on the free-trade negotiations with Central America: `Because of the elections Cafta will become very contentious on a number of different fronts -- particularly labor, environment, and textiles and apparel. In addition, the fact that Costa Rica is still negotiating will create another purported problem for ratification in the Congress.' This notwithstanding, he envisages Cafta being approved `after a tough fight'.
On immigration he expects more noise than substance: `There will be a lot of talk by both parties about immigration reform, but don't expect anything to happen. The Democrats will want a lot, the Republicans very little. As both are fighting for the Hispanic vote, neither are likely to take the risk of an actual law. You can't be criticized for what you contend you support, but the devil is in the details and neither party is going to be willing to compromise on a bipartisan bill that can pass.'
*Latin America Forecasts: 2004, published by the IAD's Latin America Advisor service. Available from www.iadialog.org