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Development: On 17 June the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) office in La Paz issued a report on cocaine production in the Andean countries in 2007.

Significance: The report, which will be published formally today (18 June), claimed that coca acreage in Colombia was up by 27% and that there were smaller increases in both Peru (4%) and Bolivia (5%). However, it reckoned that overall cocaine production capacity in 2007 was much the same as in 2006, which suggests that coca growers' productivity is dropping.

The data also suggests that President Evo Morales's policy of authorising legal coca plantations has been reasonably effective. On 17 June President Morales warned coca growers that they had to do more to control their coca production. “There is not a zero coca policy, but nor is there an uncontrolled coca-growing policy", Morales told coca growers.

The big increase in coca acreage in Colombia is a surprise. Under pressure from Ecuador, Colombia suspended spraying along its border with Ecuador which is one of the main coca growing zones in the region. Ecuador argued that aerial spraying affected legal crops on its territory and posed health risks to Ecuadoreans living close to the border.

The UNODC reported that coca acreage in the three Andean countries (Colombia, Peru and Bolivia) was 181,600 hectares in 2007. This was 16% up on 2006 and the highest since 2001. The UNODC reckons that this acreage implied a cocaine production capacity of 994t, much the same as the UNODC's assessment of production capacity in 2006: 984t.

Antonio Marí­a Costa, the executive director of the UNODC, said that the apparent increase in coca growing in Colombia was “a nasty shock but it had to be put into perspective". He said that the bulk of the increased acreage was in territory controlled by insurgents.

What Costa did not say was that the main insurgent group in Colombia, the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc), is now very much on the defensive. There were unconfirmed reports on 17 June that another key member of the Farc's seven-person secretariat (or central committee) had been killed.

If these reports are confirmed, three members of the secretariat will have been killed by Colombian military action since 1 March. The Farc said last month that its leader and founder, Manuel Marulanda, died of a heart attack on 26 March but there are persistent rumours that in fact he was killed in a bombing raid.

In Bolivia the UNODC said the bulk of the increase in coca production was in the La Asunta region of Los Yungas in the department of La Paz. The government has not invested much, the UNODC argued, in promoting alternative crops in this region. Coca-growing is regulated in President Evo Morales's base of Chapare. The UNODC noted that coca-growing appeared to have fallen in Alto Beni, where the government had encouraged alternative crops.

The fact that the UNODC reported that coca acreage increased in Bolivia does not affect the government's deal with the US government which is tied to eradication. The Bolivian government met the US target of eradicating 5,000 hectares of coca plantations in 2007 and so the US continued the trade preferences Bolivia enjoys under the Andean Trade Preference Drug Eradication Act (Atpdea).

The latest estimate from the Bolivian government is that there are 57,000ha of coca plantations in the country. Felipe Cáceres, the deputy minister for social defence, reckons that there are 18,500ha of coca crops in Los Yungas and 38,500ha in Chapare, which is the department of Cochabamba.

In Peru the UNODC reported that the increase in coffee and cocoa prices had encouraged coca farmers to switch to these crops when their coca fields have been eradicated. There must be some doubt about whether this view is correct: coca's great selling point to poor peasants is that it provides four crops a year. Both coffee and cocoa bushes need at least 18 months before they can provide farmers with a regular income.

Development: On 20 July millions of people took to the streets in cities across Colombia and around the world to demand the release of hostages held by the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc).

Significance: The march, which coincided with Colombia's independence day, may have attracted as many participants as a similar demonstration in February which took place at the height of the hostage crisis. The event was more celebratory than the solemn protest five months ago, but it nevertheless indicated that Colombians have not forgotten the plight of the Farc's remaining hostages (of whom there are some 3,000 according to government figures) after the military rescued 15 of the guerrilla group's highest-profile captives on 2 July including Ingrid Betancourt, the former presidential candidate.

Betancourt herself took part in a special musical concert in Paris, where she has spent most of her time since her release. She was not the only star name at the event in the French capital - international popstar Juanes headlined the concert. Betancourt, who has dual French-Colombian nationality, was joined on stage by the mayor of Paris, Bertrand Delanoí«. Betancourt might well try to exploit her popularity in France to keep the French government interested in attempts to free the other hostages.

Colombia's president, Alvaro Uribe, attended an event in Leticia, in the south-east of Colombia, alongside President Lula da Silva of Brazil and Alan Garcí­a of Peru. The traditional military parade marking independence day was led by the 11 members of the armed forces who were freed with Betancourt. This event also had an A-list feel to it: Shakira, another international music star, opened proceedings by singing the national anthem.

Development: On 20 August the executive approved three further decrees reorganising Panama's law enforcement and security services.

Significance: Approval of the decrees will generate further opposition to President Martí­n Torrijos, who was granted “extraordinary powers" by congress at the end of June for two months to undertake security reforms which, he claims, are necessary to combat drug trafficking and reduce crime levels.

Following two decrees approved on 18 August amending the law creating the Institutional Protection Service (SPI, which includes the presidential guard) and the police, the latest reforms establish a national aeronaval service; a national border service; reorganize the national defence and public safety council (Cosepudena, which regulates state activity in security, defense and intelligence matters); and establishes a national intelligence and security service (Senis).

The latter provision has proved the most controversial, with civil society sectors, the human rights ombudsman, the anti-corruption executive secretary, the media and the Catholic Church all arguing that it violates civil liberties and demanding that the reforms be debated in congress.

Having initially seemed to have backed down over the Senis issue, saying it would send the proposal to congress for debate, the government appears to have had a change of heart. Instead, the minister for the presidency, Dilio Arcia, said that “articles referring to fundamental guarantees would be excluded from the legislation" although he failed to provide any further details. The move has failed to reassure civil society groups, who announced they would be organizing marches for 3 September in protest.

Development: On 24 September the Brazilian and Ecuadorean foreign ministers, Celso Amorim and Marí­a Isabel Salvador, met on the fringes of the UN General Assembly meeting in New York.

Significance: The meeting comes after Ecuador's president, Rafael Correa, recently expelled Brazilian construction company Odebrecht from the country and took over its assets and installations due to alleged irregularities in its projects, in particular the hydroelectric plant at San Francisco. Both Correa and his Brazilian counterpart, Lula da Silva, have publicly expressed their desire for the situation with Odebrecht not to have any negative impact on relations between the two countries. Clearly there is some level of concern on the Brazilian side, however, as Amorim was instructed by Lula to meet Salvador to discuss the issue while they were both at the UN meeting in New York.

Correa was the first to comment on the potential diplomatic repercussions of expelling Odebrecht when he said on local TV that he had already spoken to Lula about the problem when they met in Chile last week at the extraordinary summit of the Unión de Naciones Suramericanas (Unasur). “I told him that what the company has done in Ecuador is terrible and I don't think there will be international repercussions," Correa revealed. He said that he hoped diplomatic relations would not suffer as a result, but did not back down on his reasons for issuing the presidential decree on 23 September which ordered the military to seize and guard the San Francisco site along with four others belonging to Odebrecht.

Correa also announced that his government is looking into the option of not repaying a loan from the Brazilian Development Bank, of around US$200m, which was used to finance the San Francisco dam. The dam was opened last year but shut down in June this year due to the discovery of serious structural faults which Ecuador claims were the responsibility of Odebrecht.

Lula took an apparently calm and conciliatory approach to the problem, saying that Odebrecht is a “respected" company in Brazil but that Ecuador is also a country with which Brazil maintains “extraordinary relations" and “a historical relationship". He also highlighted that Correa's decision comes with a political backdrop, just a few days before the constitutional referendum on 28 September. Lula said: “It is important to remember that we have a lot of elections. In Ecuador, there will be elections [a referendum] on Sunday. Let's just wait a moment before we solve the problem."

Development: On 28 October the presidents of Ecuador and Venezuela, Rafael Correa and Hugo Chávez respectively, met in Ecuador and called on the rest of Latin America to pull together in the face of the global economic crisis. Chávez again suggested the creation of a regional currency and bank.

Significance: The presidential summit, which took place in the Ecuadorean Amazon town of Puyo, was the latest in a series of meetings between Correa and Chávez designed to strengthen economic and political ties between Ecuador and Venezuela. Correa will be keen to maintain good relations with Chávez , since Venezuela is one of the few foreign powers still willing and able (for now) to invest in Ecuador's oil industry.

Correa has been frightening off other private investors with strict new legislation regulating the extraction of natural resources, but as oil revenues provide some 35% of Ecuador's GDP, it is in his interests to keep on the right side of Chávez .

During the meeting, the pair assessed three joint energy projects. First, the exploration of the 'Campo Sacha' oil concession in Orellana province in Ecuador by a joint venture company made up of the state oil firm Petroecuador and its Venezuelan counterpart Pdvsa, known as 'Rí­o Napo'.

Second, exploration of 'Block 4' in the Gulf of Guayaquil for natural gas or oil, and third, the exploitation of the 'Campo Ayacucho 5' in the Orinoco oil belt in Venezuela. Correa and Chávez also signed a statement of intent for the construction of a steel works plant worth some US$890m in Guayas province in Ecuador.

In addition, the ministerial teams accompanying the two presidents signed ten other agreements relating to food sovereignty, agro-ecology, regional government and infrastructure, among others.

President Chávez took the opportunity to reiterate the need for the new Banco del Sur to replace US-based international monetary organisations such as the World Bank and the IMF. He called on other Latin American governments to keep their reserves in banks in the region, rather than in the US, and insisted on the desirability of a regional currency, which he suggested could be called the 'sucre'.

Both presidents highlighted the urgency of greater regional economic integration in the face of the global economic downturn, and Chávez said that the Banco del Sur and a common Latin American currency would remove the need to carry out transactions in US dollars. President Correa described capitalism as “a perverse system" based on financial speculation, currently in crisis, and said that “[Simón] Bolí­var's dream of integration, of one great Latin American nation, [has become] a necessity for survival".

The two are scheduled to meet again within in Venezuela in two or three months to assess the progress of their joint projects and agreements.

Brazil: The rate of consumer price inflation in São Paulo city rose 0.39% on a month-on-month basis in November, moderating from 0.50% in October.

Brazil: Total vehicle sales fell 22.28% month-on-month and 23.44% year-on-year in November (to 309,712 units). Sales rose 17.36% annually on an accumulated basis in the first eleven months of 2008 to 4.5mn units.

Development:On 14 January the Uruguayan daily El Paí­s published a photo of the interior minister, Daisy Tourné, taking a shower.

Significance: The photo, which shows only the minister's face, was originally published by Tourné herself on the social-networking site Facebook, next to the caption “there's nothing more real than a soaking wet woman".

The socialist minister has a reputation as an unflappable and formidable politician. She has since laughed off the incident, which was promptly labeled a “scandal" by the opposition, saying that the photo was taken by a female friend in an outdoor shower that they use when coming back from the beach.  

The government of President Tabaré Vázquez has remained quiet on the issue. Meanwhile, many of Tourné's 2,990 facebook “friends" have come out in support of the minister, reminding the press of the Uruguayan tradition of keeping its citizens' public and private lives separate.

Development: On 22 February Alberto Lagos, the deputy director of counterintelligence at Colombia's intelligence service (DAS) resigned, amid a scandal over allegations of illegal phonetapping.

Significance: This is the latest in a series of scandals to hit Colombia's Departamento Administrativo del Servicio (DAS), which answers directly to the president's office. Lagos' resignation follows the publication of an investigation by a news magazine, Semana, that accuses DAS agents “at the service of paramilitaries, guerilla groups and sinister political interests" of illegally intercepting phone calls and emails of supreme court judges, opposition politicians and journalists. Lagos is unlikely to be the scandal's only casualty. The allegations raise awkward questions, not least for President Alvaro Uribe and his office, whom the opposition accuse of having ordered the surveillance, and increases pressure on the government to reform the DAS.

The government maintains that any illegal surveillance carried out by the DAS was the work of rogue agents under the pay of criminal groups, and without the authorisation of DAS chiefs or the president's office. The head of the DAS, Felipe Muñoz, who has been in the job for barely a month, said that he was launching an investigation into the existence of a “criminal network" that may have infiltrated the DAS. This backs up Semana's report that DAS agents have been selling information to drug traffickers and other criminal groups, for Col$150m (US$78,000).

Uribe has yet to react to the allegations, but his defence minister, Juan Manuel Santos, strongly denied the government's involvement and blamed “some criminal grouping from out with the DAS", described as “enemies of the state". In the government's defence, two of the victims of the wiretapping were, reportedly, from the president's own office: the private secretary, Alicia Arango, and the secretary general, Bernado Moreno.

The problem for the government is that almost all of the alleged targets of DAS surveillance are opponents of Uribe and his administration. The most politically troublesome accusations for Uribe involve the surveillance of supreme court judges, including Iván Velásquez, the judge in charge of investigating links between members of congress and paramilitary groups. The so-called 'parapolí­tica' scandal has implicated some 60 legislators, most of whom are members of Uribe's ruling coalition, and Uribe has clashed with the supreme court on numerous occasions, accusing the judiciary of carrying out a political vendetta against his government. Velásquez, meanwhile, has accused the DAS - and by implication the government - of pursuing him and other judges since 2007, and last year publicly asked former DAS chief Maria del Pilar Hurtado to explain the organisation's surveillance of judges heading parapolitical investigations.

Hurtado herself was forced to resign in October 2008 after the agency admitted to spying on political opponents of Uribe, including prominent opposition senator Gustavo Petro, who played a prominent role in attempts to shed light on the 'parapolí­tica' scandal. The incident was blamed on a sole rogue agent who, the DAS argued at the time, was working in isolation; the new revelations will raise uncomfortable questions for Hurtado.

Ironically, Hurtado was appointed by Uribe in August 2007 to continue an image clean up of the DAS after her forerunner, Jorge Noguera, was forced to resign in 2005 amid allegations that he had colluded with rightwing paramilitaries and drug traffickers. Awkwardly for Uribe, Noguera was also one of his election campaign managers.

The government is certainly taking the claims seriously: the attorney general Mario Iguarán, sent a team of investigators to search the DAS headquarters yesterday (22 February) and has promised a far-reaching investigation. “Semana", however, reported that between 19 and 21 January, in the days immediately prior to Munoz's taking over at the DAS, the majority of the tapes in question were destroyed.

It is likely that Uribe, whose apparent imperviousness to corruption scandals surrounding his administration has been labelled the 'teflon effect' by local media, will survive this latest scandal relatively unscathed. He will, however, come under pressure to purge, and even reform the intelligence agency. Yesterday Uribe's secretary general, Bernado Moreno said that the government may consider calls for the DAS to be dismantled and subsumed into the national police and the armed forces.

Development: On 31 March it was confirmed that the opposition mayor of Maracaibo, Manuel Rosales, recently accused of corruption, had gone into hiding in a secure location in the state of Zulia, fearing for his safety.

Significance:  The internal atmosphere is becoming increasingly tense as President Hugo Chávez brazenly tightens the screws on his political opponents.

The president of Rosales' political party, Un Nuevo Tiempo, Oscar Barboza, said that Rosales had been taken to a secure location within Zulia, and denied earlier suggestions that he had fled the country.

Barboza said that the situation had become intolerable for Rosales, saying that menacing armed civilians (which he suggested were government Disip and DIM agents) were shadowing his every move, almost leading to an exchange of fire with his bodyguards last week.

On 19 March the attorney general requested a detention order against Rosales, accusing him of illicit enrichment during his eight years as state governor of Maracaibo (2000-2008). A lower court must shortly rule on whether he should face trial. Rosales came out fighting, saying he wanted to clear his name, and accused Chávez of political persecution. Barboza complained yesterday that Rosales' lawyers had been given insufficient information on the case to mount a defence.

In late October 2008, ahead of municipal elections, Chávez very publicly warned Rosales (who was the sole runner against him in the 2006 presidential election), that he would throw him in jail.

Development: On 10 May Ricardo Alarcón, the president of Cuba's congress, said that the US still had to make a “serious" change in policy towards Cuba.

Significance: Alarcón's belittling of President Barack Obama's removal of President George W Bush's limits on Cuban-expatriate support for the Cuban economy demonstrates, perversely, that Cuba's rulers do want to start a dialogue with the US. Alarcón's comment overrides a comment made by former president, Fidel Castro, who said in April that his brother and successor, Raúl, had been “misunderstood" when Raúl said that he was prepared to talk to the US about human rights. Alarcón made it clear that Cuba was prepared to discuss human rights.

Alarcón's conditions for considering that the US is making a serious change of policy are interesting: Alarcón said that Cuba would consider the US to be in earnest if it either prosecuted Luis Posada Carriles, a self-confessed terrorist who was involved in blowing up a Cuban airliner, or if the US released five Cubans who have been in jail for spying for the past 10 years.

Alarcón made the comments to CNN en Español during his trip to Canada from 7 to 10 May. Alarcón said: “What we really have to discuss is how two neighbours can have a normal relationship in accordance with the principles of international law and mutual interest."

Brazil: Retail sales posted a weaker-than-expected result of -0.2% month-on-month in April over March, while they grew 6.9% year-on-year, boosted by an extra working day in April 2009. In the seasonally adjusted series, just two of the eight sectors posted growth: food, drink and tobacco (+0.8%), and IT and telecoms equipment (+8.9%). In the accumulated year to date, retail sales rose 4.5%.

Chile: The central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to a record low of 0.75%.

Colombia: The government revised its real GDP forecasts to a range of 0.5%-1.5% in 2009 and 2.5% in 2010. I expects a fiscal deficit of 3.7% of GDP in 2009 and 4.3% of GDP in 2010.

Ecuador-Venezuela: Ecuador announced plans to sell 50,000 tonnes of rice from its strategic reserves to Venezuela, at a price of US$23.1m.

Development: On 23 July the federal government announced a fresh expenditure cut of 3.6% this year.

Significance: The big worry is what will happen in 2010, when the government's hugely successful oil hedge expires. Oil exports, royalties and taxes supply the government with 38% of its total fiscal revenues, but production is falling fast and prices are volatile.

The finance minister, Agustí­n Carstens, said that the government was cutting spending by M$85bn (US$6.4bn) this year and would shortly send a bill to congress proposing tax increases for 2010. He said that the economic crisis had cut the government's revenues by M$480bn (US$36.6bn). The government's oil revenues in the first five months of 2009 were down 24% on the same period of 2008, he revealed.

The Mexican economy has been sent reeling by the economic crisis in the US, which takes over 85% of Mexico's exports. Mexico's trade was down by a third in the first half of 2009, year-on-year, and even the government forecasts that real GDP contracted 9% annually in the first half.

The government's cash bind is likely to cause real problems. On 22 July the state government of Guerrero announced that it would shut down for a fortnight because of a cut in federal transfers.

Development: On 1 September the supreme court issued an arrest warrant for senator Alirio Villamizar Afanador, the vice-president of the government-aligned Partido Conservador.

Significance: Villamizar is accused of accepting bribes to vote in favour of a constitutional reform to allow for the re-election of President Alvaro Uribe for a second term in 2006. His arrest coincided with the final debate and lower house vote on the referendum that allows Uribe to stand again in 2010.

Uribistas accused the supreme court, which has clashed with Uribe on numerous occasions, of seeking to intimidate legislators and thus scupper the referendum bill. Villamizar ´s arrest comes as opposition legislators accused the government of buying votes in order to secure support for the referendum.

The court last week ordered a search of Villamizar ´s house, where investigators discovered Col$730m (US$350,000). The senator must now explain the origin of these funds to the court.

On 31 August, the supreme court also ordered the arrest of three legislators - including two from Uribe ´s ruling coalition - for alleged links to paramilitary groups. Some 70 legislators are now under investigation for ´parapolí­tica ´, the majority of whom are from government benches.

Development: Early on 10 October, after a marathon 20-hour debate, the senate approved the government's proposed new media bill in its entirety, and without any modifications, by 44 votes to 24 (it required 37 votes) with 68 of the 72 senators present.

Significance: The easy victory for this controversial bill, which is aimed at modernising the existing regulatory framework for the media sector (put in place under the 1976-1983 military regime), is an important and well-timed victory for the government of President Cristina Fernández, just before it loses its parliamentary majority in December (when legislators elected in the July 2009 midterms take their seats). Opponents will now take their objections to the supreme court.

The opposition singularly failed to galvanise public support for its campaign against the bill, largely because, unlike the mass protests against the government's agri export taxes last year, it doesn't affect the average voter very much and, despite widespread media coverage, many didn't engage with the debate at all.

After landing the government a body blow in the 28 June midterm elections, the opposition has also shown up its main weakness - it's fractious and splintered nature - a weakness the unpopular Fernández government continues to capitalise on, despite its midterm defeat.

After the bill was passed in its entirety after 14 hours of debate on Friday (9 October), senators spent another six hours going through and voting on each article individually. It was eventually approved without modifications, obviating the need for it to go back to the lower house, which had earlier passed it by 146-3, after opposition deputies walked out in protest. The opposition sniffed that the government bribed various senators from the non-ruling Peronist alliance, Frente para la Victoria, to back the bill by promising them additional provincial funds. Senator Ernesto Sanz of the opposition Unión Cí­vica Radica, the second-largest in congress, warned that the new bill would lead to a “flood of lawsuits" and said that the government has now put in place an “almost impracticable" law.

In contrast, the cabinet chief Aní­bal Fernández, described the legislation as “serious, respectful and approved by consensus," and noted that the government had managed to achieve a reform that had eluded previous administrations.

ECLAC warns of renewed rise in poverty

The UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) estimates that 9m people in the region will fall back into poverty this year, as a result of the global economic crisis, reversing several years of steady reductions in poverty.

In its latest (2009) 'Social Panorama of Latin America', ECLAC estimates that poverty in the region will increase by 1.1% and indigence by 0.8% with regard to 2008. Thus, the number living in poverty will reach 189m by the end of 2009 (34.1% of the population), compared to 180m in 2008. Indigence will reach 76m (13.7% of the population), up from 71m in 2008. Poverty is defined by ECLAC as a monthly income that is insufficient to meet a family's basic food, health and educational needs. Indigence means that a family does not get enough to eat.

Notably, these 9m poor and indigent represent almost a fourth of the population (41m people) that had already overcome poverty between 2002 and 2008 due to greater economic growth, the expansion of social spending, the demographic bonus and better income distribution. The projected increase in poverty for 2009 will delay the compliance of the first Millennium Development Goal of eradicating extreme poverty and hunger by 2015.

ECLAC was keen to stress that the current crisis will have less impact on regional poverty than prior crises but called on governments to rethink social protection programmes with a long-term, strategic perspective. “For now, the region has been able to maintain the purchasing power of salaries and low inflation", it stated, although it noted that some countries, notably Mexico, may experiment a greater increase in poverty than the regional average, due to lower GDP and deteriorating employment and salaries.

ECLAC noted that higher social spending in recent years had delivered positive results, particularly in those countries (17 in total, covering 100m people) with so-called conditional transfer programmes (CTPs), such as the Bolsa da Familia in Brazil, which condition welfare payments on school attendance and regular health check-ups. Between 1990 and 2007, public social expenditures per capita rose from 43% to 60% of average total public expenditures in Latin America.

Women and children suffer most

The report also notes that poverty strikes children and women in Latin America harder than the rest of the population: it is 1.7 times higher among minors under 15 than in adults, and 1.15 times greater among women than men. Exposure to poverty among women is higher than among men in the entire region and is significantly greater in Panama (1.37 times higher), Costa Rica (1.30 times), Dominican Republic (1.25 times), Chile (1.24 times) and Uruguay (1.21 greater). In 13 out of 18 countries this pattern has aggravated between 2002 and 2008.

This trend is even worse among children under the age of 15. In every country in the region, except El Salvador, the poverty gap between children and adults has deepened over the past six years, especially in Argentina, Brazil, Panama, Uruguay and Venezuela, although to different degrees. In Uruguay, for example, poverty is 3.1 times higher among children than adults, while in Chile it is 1.8 times greater and in Nicaragua, 1.3 times. ECLAC notes, “The poverty gap based on age and gender, demands long-term policies to foment women's insertion in the labour market, redistribute the burden of non-paid domestic work and broaden the extension and coverage of schooling for children".

Development: On 12 January the inspector general (procurador general), Alejandro Ordóñez, recommended that the constitutional court should approve a referendum to allow President Alvaro Uribe to run for a third consecutive term.

Significance: Although nonbinding, Ordóñez's recommendation to the court - required by law - carries significant legal and political weight. The problem for Uribistas is that, even if the court does heed Ordóñez's advice, time constraints are threatening to sink the re-election effort.

Ordóñez advised that various alleged irregularities in the approval of the referendum bill ought not influence the court's ruling on its constitutionality.  Potentially the most damaging of these is the November ruling by the national electoral court that the original petition backing the referendum bill was invalid, as its organisers exceeded the legal financing limit. The opposition says that it has tabled 16 other irregularities, including the eleventh-hour government decree that extended the last session of the lower house in order to save the bill in December 2008.

Ordóñez also said that, in his opinion, congress was within its rights to alter the ambiguous wording of the text of the referendum bill to clarify that it referred to re-election in 2010, rather than 2014.

The court now has up to sixty days to rule on whether the referendum would be constitutional, although it is expected to announce its decision by mid to late February. This would still leave very little time for the electoral authorities to organise a referendum before the May presidential vote. Uribistas have been muttering in recent days about tinkering with the electoral calendar to accommodate re-election, but in practice this would be unlikely to pass. The head of the country's electoral authorities, Carlos Ariel Sánchez, said yesterday that it would be impossible to change election dates without breaking the constitution.

Development: On the evening of 23 February Orlando Zapata Tamayo, a 42-year old political prisoner, died in hospital following an 83-day hunger strike.

Significance: It is the first time in nearly 40 years that a dissident has died of hunger strike, prompting immediate condemnation from leading opponents of the Cuban government on the island and in the Miami-based exile community. His distraught mother, Reina Luisa Tamayo, accused the authorities of assassination. The timing is very awkward for Brazil's President Lula da Silva, who arrived in Havana last night on his final official visit to Cuba before leaving office at the end of this year.

The death casts a pall over Lula's trip. Brazil takes a somewhat ambiguous position on the situation of Cuba's dissidents, on the grounds that it's an internal matter. Earlier this week, 50 of the country's political dissidents sent an open letter to Lula asking him to intercede on their behalf with President Raúl Castro and his brother and predecessor, Fidel.

The trip, Lula's fourth state visit to Cuba since he first took office in early 2003, was billed as a gesture of solidarity with the Cuban government, which Lula has actively sought to engage with and reintegrate into the regional community.

The case of Zapata, an Afro-Cuban of humble origin (he was a bricklayer by trade) had caught the attention of the international press in recent weeks as his condition rapidly deteriorated. He began his hunger strike on 3 December last in protest at alleged constant beatings and other abuse by prison guards at his gaol (Kilo 7) in the eastern province of Camagüey. On 17 February he was transferred to the Amalia Simon hospital in Camagüey, and then last week to a facility attached to the Combinado del Este prison in Havana. In recent days, he was moved to one of the country's top hospitals, Hermanos Amejeiras, in what leading dissidents said was a cynical last minute move by the government.

Zapata was a member of a small dissident group, Movimiento Alternativa Republicana. He was arrested in 2003 amid a heavy crackdown by Fidel Castro that imposed lengthy prison sentences on 75 prominent dissidents. The crackdown led to the rupture of political relations with the European Union. The majority of those dissidents remain in detention. Zapata was not formally one of the 75, however his initial three-year sentence for contempt, public disorder and disobedience was eventually extended to a total of 36 years in punishment for 'acts of defiance' while in detention.

The head of Cuba's Human Rights and National Reconciliation Commission (CCDHRN, in the Spanish acronym), Elizardo Sánchez, a former political prisoner himself, said last night that the death was “perfectly preventable_.It could be considered an assassination dressed up in judicial clothing". Spain's press reported that Spanish authorities had raised the case in a Madrid meeting with Cuban government officials last week.

The Miami press reported last night an additional police presence on the streets of several Cuban cities. The Cuban government has not yet commented.

President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela was also reportedly due in Havana today (24 February) for a meeting with his mentor Fidel. Both Lula and Chávez are en route from a regional summit in Cancún, Mexico, where leaders agreed the establishment of a new community of Latin America and Caribbean nations, exclusive of the US and Canada. Raúl Castro, normally shy of such summits, also attended.

Pointer: The last political prisoner to die from a hunger strike in Cuba was Pedro Luis Boitel, a student leader, in 1972. According to CCDHRN, there were 201 dissidents imprisoned at end 2009, down from 208 at mid-year. The commission said it documented 869 dissident detentions in 2009. It highlighted a change in government policy to keep the opposition in check without imposing the previous long prison sentences. However, it also noted increased physical and verbal intimidation of prominent dissidents towards the end of 2009, including the blogger Yoani Sánchez.

Development: On 7 April, the Colombian government requested the intervention of the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) to guarantee the human rights protection of a group of Colombians detained in Venezuela.

Significance: The request will likely lead to an escalation in the accusatory rhetoric between the two countries. The official foreign ministry communiqué called for the involvement of the IACHR to “avoid irreparable damages to the life and integrity" of the Colombian citizens detained in Venezuela and voiced concerns over what it considers to be “the systematic stigmatization" in Venezuela of Colombian citizens who are prejudged on the basis of their nationality.  

The latter point was in response to earlier statements by Tarek ElAissami, Venezuela's interior and justice minister, who said on 6 April that the nationality of a recently detained group “is a worrying element".  

The Colombian government also sent an official letter of protest to the Venezuelan government demanding that it respect the rights of Colombian citizens, as stipulated in the 1963 Vienna Convention, and allow the detained to obtain consular assistance.  

While Venezuelan authorities revealed (on 6 April) that they had detained (in late March) eight Colombians suspected of espionage, the Colombian ombudsman, Vólmar Pérez, revealed yesterday (7 April) that the total number of Colombians currently detained in Venezuela is 20.

Eight people detained in Barinas in March were accused of possessing compromising photographs of the Venezuelan electricity grid. Two of them were accused by Venezuela of working for the Colombian government, after Colombian military IDs were found in a raid on their home. Their relatives in Medellí­n, Colombia, claimed that the IDs were at least eight years old, dating from a period when the pair carried out administrative duties at a clinic of the IV army brigade in Medellí­n.

Another 12 Colombians were arrested at a ranch in the state of Miranda on 19 March. According to their relatives, they were accused of forming part of a paramilitary group because five “old shotguns" were found on display at the home. Some of the detained were visiting from Colombia, including Anayibe Mancera whose seven-year old child was placed under the care of a local school teacher instead of being returned to Villavicencio, Colombia, where other relatives live.

Development: On 18 May another leading poll put Dilma Rousseff, the government's 2010 presidential candidate, ahead of her main opposition rival, José Serra.

Significance:   The 2010 race is surely Rousseff's to lose. Pollsters say that voters are now 'fusing' Rousseff's image and candidacy with the popular President Lula da Silva. That, combined with a strong electoral desire for continuity and a thriving economy, sets Serra a tough challenge. According to proxy estimates by the central bank, real GDP growth in the first quarter was a whopping 9.58% year-on-year, setting the stage for a triumphant final year for the outgoing Lula government.

In the latest Sensus/CNT poll, Rousseff had 35.7% of first round voting intentions, compared to 33.2% for Serra, of the Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB). In a second round scenario, she just pips Serra, with 41.8%, compared to his 40.5%. The polling margin of error means that both candidates are essentially tied.

Marina Silva of the Partido Verde continues to trail at about 8.0%.   The Sensus poll mirrored a 'Vox Populi' poll published over the weekend. It's worth noting that both surveys took place in the aftermath of recent TV advertising spots by the ruling Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT), underlining the importance of television in Brazilian elections. However, Serra has clearly lost his previous edge over Rousseff and the race is now heating up fast.

Some interesting snippets to take from the Sensus poll: 27.1% of respondents said they would vote exclusively for a candidate backed by Lula, up from 20% in November 2009. Lula's approval rating is 83.7%. Voters are confident about the future. Sensus noted: “The country is enjoying an extremely favourable moment, with Lula and the government registering record approval ratings_The population wants continuity with current economic and social policies".

Yesterday, the main PT ally, the Partido do Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (PMDB), voted unanimously to put forward Michel Temer, currently the head of congress, as Rousseff's vice presidential partner.   The two parties have yet to agree on slates in Bahí­a, Ceará, Minas Gerais, Maranhão and Pará.

The Sensus poll surveyed 2,000 voters in 126 municipalities on 10-14 May.

Development: On 24 June President Felipe Calderón decreed the abolition of the tax on vehicle ownership.

Significance: The opposition claimed that the decree was blatant electioneering - there are gubernatorial elections in 12 states on 4 July. Greenpeace, an environmental activist group, claimed that the move would increase Mexico's greenhouse gas emissions significantly. It also estimated that the move would push up the number of cars in Mexico from the current 20m to 30m in 2020.

Calderón and his government argue that the decree is designed to help the car industry which is doing well on the export front but is finding the domestic market much more difficult. The government said that it would meet the costs of registering a new car immediately (applicable to vehicles priced at up to M$250,000 [US$19,400]). The cost of registering a M$250,000 new car is about M$7,500 (US$591).

Calderón's decision is odd: the opposition may be able to characterise it as favouring the wealthy who can afford to buy a new car. People who can't buy new cars will go on paying the tax until the end of 2011, when the federal registration tax is set in any case to disappear altogether, as congress decided in 2007.