Development: President Evo Morales of Bolivia said on 24 October that President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela had telephoned him to suggest that Bolivia should take over from Venezuela as the anti-US candidate for a seat on the UN Security Council.
Significance: Chávez and Venezuela recognise that they will not win the two-thirds majority needed to get a seat on the Security Council when voting resumes, for the 36th round, today, 25 October. The best Chávez can now hope for is to stop the US candidate, Guatemala, winning the seat. At the last vote, on 19 October, Guatemla was only 17 votes short of the 127 it needs while Venezuela was 42 shy. Bolivia, though, is not an obvious compromise candidate. The US is sceptical about the Bolivian government: the big countries in the western hemisphere (the US, Brazil and Mexico) would prefer a steadier compromise candidate, such as Uruguay or Costa Rica.
Morales, who revealed that Chávez had telephoned him on the evening of 23 October with the suggestion, did not jump at the offer. Morales said that first the Venezuelan ambassador to La Paz called him asking him to call Chávez to discuss the suggestion. Morales nevertheless told his ambassador to the UN to take soundings to see whether Bolivia could get the 127 votes needed for a seat on the Security Council.
Bolivia did get the immediate, but guarded, endorsement of Peru, which had abstained in all the previous rounds. Peru's foreign minister, José Antonio García Belaunde said that Peru would support Bolivia “if it emerged as the consensus candidate for Latin America and the Caribbean." What was significant about García Belaunde's statement is that it came from Santiago where he has meetings scheduled with the Chilean foreign minister, Alejandro Foxley for today. Chile, like Peru, has abstained in the voting so far.
Peru has dismal relations with Venezuela, which will not have been improved by the revelation on 24 October that Chávez channelled US$4m to support Ollanta Humala in the recent presidential elections. Peru, on the other hand, has traditionally had close relations with Bolivia. Chile's government is just as annoyed as Peru by Venezuela's clumsy behaviour towards it, but Chile's relations with Bolivia have historically been poor.
Brazil, which is the only one of the hemisphere's big three to have backed Venezuela, has difficult relations with Bolivia. The Brazilian state oil company, Petrobras, has made billion-dollar investments in Bolivia's gas industry and these interests are threatened by Bolivia's nationalisation of energy. Bolivia's intellectual vice-president, Alvaro García Linera, said, unwisely, soon after the elections last year that Brazil was Bolivia's historic enemy: President Morales has also alluded to Brazil's annexation of Bolivian territory at the beginning of the last century.
President Hugo Chávez has yet to comment on his offer to Morales, though Venezuela's foreign minister, Nicolás Maduro, said that Venezuela would only drop its candidacy if Guatemala withdrew first. Guatemala's foreign minister, Gert Rosenthal, said that Guatemala had no intention of withdrawing and that Guatemala did not see Bolivia as a compromise candidate. Rosenthal said that the “normal thing for the lagging candidate, in this case, Venezuela, to do would be to withdraw to let the front-runner win."