Latinnews Archive
Latin American Weekly Report - 5 July 1985
POLITICS: Pressure mounts on elections; BANZER STILL AHEAD DESPITE VIOLENCE AND NEW HITCHES
The prospects of general elections being held in mid-July look grim. Several factors have, as we predicted (WR-85-20), combined to create a new wave of social and political unrest. Labour unrest, civic stoppages in two departments, shady deals in the electoral court, violence by armed civilian groups and the threat of a military coup have put the 14 July elections in the balance.
While labour and political unrest was until recently rooted in economic demands -- for wage hikes or price controls -- the focus has shifted: former general Hugo Banzer Suarez's chance of winning is now the issue. Some polls give him over 50% of the national vote.
Although Banzer's constituency is mainly urban, some analysts reckon these votes will be enough to compensate for voter registration apathy and the anticipated low turnout in the countryside.
Despite the good forecasts, Banzer's election bandwagon has run into a another bunch of problems. He earlier hit a rough patch over human rights in Argentina (WR-85-24). The latest hitches are:
* Banzer's running mate, Eudoro Galindo, did his military service in the US and not in Bolivia. To be eligible to stand for election, candidates should do military service in Bolivia. The military high command has asked the electoral court to enforce this.
* Alcides Alvarado, a high-ranking member of the ruling MNRI, denounced 'suspicious faults' in the electoral court (CNE): the electorate is 2.9 million voters, yet CNE printed registration books for 3.6m people, Worse even, voter registration books were found in Banzer's Accion Democratica Nacionalista (ADN) headquarters.
Eager to fight back the military's attempt to disqualify his candidacy Eudoro Galindo said that the armed forces 'want to postpone the elections.' He said two high-ranking officers (reported to include General Simon Sejas, commander of the armed forces) 'had made contact with COB (labour confederation) leaders and members of the former popular unity (UDP) coalition (the Moscow communists, MIR and the ruling MNRI parties).'
The COB replied to Galindo's coup plot accusation, by calling for the formation of an 'anti-fascist' front of workers' organisations and progressive forces, to prevent a Banzer victory. The COB has compared Banzer to Hitler and warned that 'if Banzer is lying when he is a candidate, what will happen if he becomes President?'
Regional demands and political violence are on the increase. In June the Chuquisaca and Santa Cruz civic movements organised stoppages demanding higher local oil production royalties. A royalty increase settled the dispute in Santa Cruz, but Chuquisaca held out for more. ADN members took advantage of the lull to go on the rampage, burning cars and attacking the mayor's residence. The army had to be called in to restore order.
Similar ADN attacks were reported at the end of June in other departments: in Tarija they ransacked the left-wing MIR party headquarters; in Oruro's San Jose mine they clashed with miners. In the worst incident, seven people were shot in a trade union demonstration in Santa Cruz. This violence suggests that ADN is prepared for violence should a coup occur.
School teachers, postal employees, road workers and electricity workers have recently been on strike. Perhaps the most damaging dispute of all is that of central bank employees, as it not only affects day-to-day financial and commercial transactions, but the release of monies to cover the cost of running the election machine.
Victor Paz Estenssoro of the MNR, the number two election favourite, started a few weeks ago to slow down his campaign (RA-85-05). This had led to mounting speculation that something unexpected will happen on the election eve.
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