Latinnews Archive
Latin American Weekly Report - 2 April 1971
Argentina: President Lanusse
The confirmation of Aldo Ferrer in the ministry of economy and the appointment of Arturo Mor Roig to the interior ministry would seem to give a clear indication of the new government's policy.
Aldo Ferrer is being given another chance, free from all interference, to work out a viable settlement with the trade unions and to construct, on the basis of that settlement, a workable economic strategy for the government. With President Alejandro Lanusse now in direct control of both the administration and the army, it should be possible to give coherent backing for whatever policy is decided upon. Among the early decrees were the removal of upper limits on wage settlements -- a source of friction between Ferrer and ex-President Roberto Levingston -- and an across the board wage increase of 19 per cent. Another attempt was also made to deal with the meat crisis by imposing a new regime of meatless days, under which the sale of meat will be prohibited during every alternate week. The Levingston decree imposing a tax on cattle sales made at above 1.30 pesos a live kilo has been largely circumvented through a flourishing black market, with buyers dealing directly with the producers on the farm, putting deals through their books at less than 1.30 pesos but in fact paying a far higher price. It is extremely hard to see how Ferrer is going to deal with short term problems of the balance of payments and a growing fiscal deficit, which are emerging as a consequence of the return to a rapid rate of inflation.
His difficulties are likely to be redoubled if he fails to win the support of the local business community. Ferrer's policies consistently leave observers with the uncomfortable feeling that his ambitious and attractive plans for injecting new dynamism into the economy will founder on the rocks of the short term problems. The other prong of Lanusse's policy is evident in the appointment of Arturo Mor Roig as interior minister. Mor Roig is a former president of the chamber of deputies and a leader of the Union Civica Radical del Pueblo (UCRP) -- the party of ex-President Arturo Illia. Mor Roig's acceptance of the job has not pleased the whole of the UCRP, but unless he is expelled from the party he must be seen as its representative in the cabinet. In this connection it is important to remember that the UCRP joined the peronists last November in launching a declaration entitled La Hora del Pueblo (see LATIN AMERICA, Vol. IV, No. 47), which called for immediate elections and formulated a minimum political programme. If the Hora del Pueblo coalition were to survive the months of manoeuvring which will surely precede elections, it would be a betting certainty to win a majority of the votes cast. Thus Mor Roig's appointment implies an acceptance of the Hora del Pueblo as potentially Argentina's next government. This of course poses the questions of whether Lanusse, a staunch anti-peronist, is prepared to see General Peron return to Argentina (all the indications are that he is not), and whether Lanusse will be able to do a deal with the Hora del Pueblo -- opening the road to power so long as the presidential candidate is acceptable. Even if Lanusse himself were prepared to accept a return of peronism as the price to be paid for a workable political settlement in Argentina -- and this is the logic of his present position -- the loyalty of all his subordinates is in doubt. There does seem to be an admission, implicit in the government's present posture, that the past five years have been a total waste of time, that the armed forces were quite wrong to throw out the Illia government in 1966, and equally wrong to exclude the peronists from power in 1962. General Alcides Lopez Aufranc (to name but one) is going to find these propositions extremely hard to swallow.
The political implications of the Lanusse settlement are likely to upset the business community even more than Ferrer's economic policy. In fact the consequences of both the political and the economic aspects of the new government's policy are so uncertain that it is hard to suppose there are no further upheavals and surprises in store. In view of the past record of the armed forces, their present policies under General Lanusse do not seem credible -- even for the medium term.
The other notable feature of the Lanusse cabinet is the return of Francisco Manrique to the ministry of social welfare from which he was dismissed in February.He is one of the few ministers appointed since 1966 who has achieved a measure of genuine personal popularity. If, as is quite possible, the military again attempt to construct a political formula for the exclusion of peronism from power, Manrique could easily be a key figure in their plans. The remaining ministers were confirmed in their posts.
Underneath, or alongside (as the case may be), Mor Roig the salida politica will be charted by a committee of three senior officers who were in fact appointed just before the fall of Levingston. General Tomas Sanchez de Bustamante, Captain Victor Pereyra and Brigadier Armando Cacciatore -- one from each of the services -- constitute the Comision Asesora del Plan Politico, and the actual construction of a timetable for a return to constitutional rule will be in their hands. The general intention is to produce a reformed constitution some time in 1972, hold elections in mid-1973 and hand over power in October of that year. It is hoped a detailed timetable will be available within the next few months.
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