Whatever one makes of the legal niceties surrounding the Ríos Montt case, the upshot is political tension and uncertainty, never in short supply in Guatemala in the run up to elections at the best of times.
With four months to go until presidential elections, the cycle of political violence has intensified. A member of the centre-right opposition party Gran Alianza Nacional (Gana), for whom presidential frontrunner Oscar Berger is competing, was murdered at the weekend. Alejandro Antonio Felipe Gómez, representing the Movimiento Renovador, one of three parties under the Gana umbrella, was shot dead whilst walking home, bringing the number of victims of political violence to twelve over the last few weeks. Among the victims are three departmental representatives of the left-leaning opposition party Unidad Nacional de Esperanza (UNE), including Ismael Dónis, the party's youth coordinator, and Margarita de Rosales, representing the UNE in the municipality of San Miguel Pochuta, 60km north of Guatemala City. Both were gunned down.
While high levels of political violence are certainly not unusual in Guatemala, as elections approach, there is little doubt that the candidacy of Ríos Montt will provoke further violence. The army and the police started joint patrols earlier this month to try and curb the violence as an OAS mission, presided over by Peru's former provisional president Valentín Paniagua, arrived in Guatemala in the capacity of electoral observers. The team is comprised of over 100 officials.
International pressure. Ríos Montt's campaign has made more than domestic waves. On 27 May, US State department spokesman, Richard Boucher said that the US will not be able to maintain 'normal and friendly relations (with a government headed by Ríos Montt)'. Last week, the US ambassador to Guatemala, John Hamilton, expressed bewilderment at the decision of the constitutional court to accept Ríos Montt's candidacy. He also reiterated Boucher's statement. This might not have the desired effect on a fiercely independent Guatemalan public. When the US ambassador to Bolivia made similar warnings last year with regard to the possibility of coca leader Evo Morales winning the presidency, Morales rapidly rose up the polls, finishing a close second, with a commanding position in congress.
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