*Brazil’s central bank (BCB) has released the latest figures for its economic activity index (IBC-Br), used as a proxy to anticipate GDP figures, which showed a 0.7% drop in activity in May as compared to April. This marks the first monthly decrease in the IBC-Br in 2025 so far. However, in year-on-year terms the latest IBC-Br showed a 3.2% increase from May 2024, and the accumulated annual activity in the 12 months until May 2025 was up 4.0% from the preceding 12-month period. Private sector economists and analysts expect Brazil’s benchmark interest rate (Selic) to remain at 15.0% for the rest of this year, which is likely to further hinder activity in capital-intensive sectors such as manufacturing. Brazil’s industrial production is already feeling the bite of the
BCB’s rate hikes, which have been ongoing since September, with the national statistics institute (Ibge) registering monthly production slumps
in April and May.
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